斯坦福大学：2030年的人工智能与生活

ONE HUNDRED YEAR STUDY ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | REPORT OF THE 2015 STUDY PANEL | SEPTEMBER 2016 PREFACE The One Hundred Year Study onArtificial Intelligence, launchedin the fall of 2014, is a long-term investigation of the field ofArtificial Intelligence (AI) andits influences on people, theircommunities, and society. Itconsiders the science, engineering,and deployment of AI-enabledcomputing systems. As its coreactivity, the Standing Committeethat oversees the One HundredYear Study forms a Study Panelevery five years to assess thecurrent state of AI. The Study The overarching purposeof the One Hundred YearStudy’s periodic expertreview is to provide acollected and connectedset of reflections aboutAI and its influences asthe field advances. Panel reviews AI’s progress in the years following the immediately prior report,envisions the potential advances that lie ahead, and describes the technical andsocietal challenges and opportunities these advances raise, including in such arenas asethics, economics, and the design of systems compatible with human cognition. Theoverarching purpose of the One Hundred Year Study’s periodic expert review is toprovide a collected and connected set of reflections about AI and its influences as thefield advances. The studies are expected to develop syntheses and assessments thatprovide expert-informed guidance for directions inAI research, development, and systems design, as well as programs and policies to help ensure that these systems broadly benefit individuals and society.1The One Hundred Year Study is modeled on an earlier effort informally known as the “AAAI Asilomar Study.” During 2008-2009, the then president of the Associationfor the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), Eric Horvitz, assembled agroup of AI experts from multiple institutions and areas of the field, along withscholars of cognitive science, philosophy, and law. Working in distributed subgroups,the participants addressed near-term AI developments, long-term possibilities,and legal and ethical concerns, and then came together in a three-day meeting atAsilomar to share and discuss their findings. A short written report on the intensivemeeting discussions, amplified by the participants’ subsequent discussions with othercolleagues, generated widespread interest and debate in the field and beyond. The impact of the Asilomar meeting, and important advances in AI that includedAI algorithms and technologies starting to enter daily life around the globe, spurredthe idea of a long-term recurring study of AI and its influence on people and society.The One Hundred Year Study was subsequently endowed at a university to enable extended deep thought and cross-disciplinary scholarly investigations that couldinspire innovation and provide intelligent advice to government agencies and industry. This report is the first in the planned series of studies that will continue for at leasta hundred years. The Standing Committee defined a Study Panel charge for theinaugural Study Panel in the summer of 2015 and recruited Professor Peter Stone,at the University of Texas at Austin, to chair the panel. The seventeen-memberStudy Panel, comprised of experts in AI from academia, corporate laboratoriesand industry, and AI-savvy scholars in law, political science, policy, and economics,was launched in mid-fall 2015. The participants represent diverse specialties andgeographic regions, genders, and career stages. The Standing Committee extensively discussed ways to frame the Study Panelcharge to consider both recent advances in AI and potential societal impacts on jobs,the environment, transportation, public safety, healthcare, community engagement,and government. The committee considered various ways to focus the study,including surveying subfields and their status, examining a particular technologysuch as machine learning or natural language processing, and studying particularapplication areas such as healthcare or transportation. The committee ultimatelychose a thematic focus on “AI and Life in 2030” to recognize that AI’s various usesand impacts will not occur independently of one another, or of a multitude of othersocietal and technological developments. Acknowledging the central role cities haveplayed throughout most of human experience, the focus was narrowed to the largeurban areas where most people live. The Standing Committee further narrowed thefocus to a typical North American city in recognition of the great variability of urbansettings and cultures around the world, and limits on the first Study Panel’s efforts.The Standing Committee expects that the projections, assessments, and proactiveguidance stemming from the study will have broader global relevance and is makingplans for future studies to expand the scope of the project internationally. TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY4OVERVIEW6SECTION I: WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?12Defining AI12AI Research Trends14SECTION II: AI BY DOMAIN18Transp