2030年的人工智能与生活

ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEANDLIFEIN2030 ONEHUNDREDYEARSTUDYONARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE|REPORTOFTHE2015STUDYPANEL|SEPTEMBER2016 PREFACE TheOneHundredYearStudyonArtificialIntelligence,launched inthefallof2014,isalong-terminvestigationofthefieldofArtificialIntelligence(AI)anditsinfluencesonpeople,theircommunities,andsociety.It considersthescience,engineering,anddeploymentofAI-enabledcomputingsystems.Asitscoreactivity,theStandingCommitteethatoverseestheOneHundredYearStudyformsaStudyPaneleveryfiveyearstoassessthecurrentstateofAI.TheStudy PanelreviewsAI’sprogressintheyearsfollowingtheimmediatelypriorreport,envisionsthepotentialadvancesthatlieahead,anddescribesthetechnicalandsocietalchallengesandopportunitiestheseadvancesraise,includinginsucharenasasethics,economics,andthedesignofsystemscompatiblewithhumancognition.TheoverarchingpurposeoftheOneHundredYearStudy’speriodicexpertreviewistoprovideacollectedandconnectedsetofreflectionsaboutAIanditsinfluencesasthefieldadvances.Thestudiesareexpectedtodevelopsynthesesandassessmentsthatprovideexpert-informedguidancefordirectionsin AIresearch,development,andsystemsdesign,aswellasprogramsandpoliciestohelpensurethatthesesystemsbroadlybenefitindividualsandsociety.1 TheOneHundredYearStudyismodeledonanearliereffortinformallyknownasthe“AAAIAsilomarStudy.”During2008-2009,thethenpresidentoftheAssociationfortheAdvancementofArtificialIntelligence(AAAI),EricHorvitz,assembledagroupofAIexpertsfrommultipleinstitutionsandareasofthefield,alongwithscholarsofcognitivescience,philosophy,andlaw.Workingindistributedsubgroups,theparticipantsaddressednear-termAIdevelopments,long-termpossibilities, andlegalandethicalconcerns,andthencametogetherinathree-daymeetingatAsilomartoshareanddiscusstheirfindings.Ashortwrittenreportontheintensivemeetingdiscussions,amplifiedbytheparticipants’subsequentdiscussionswithothercolleagues,generatedwidespreadinterestanddebateinthefieldandbeyond. TheimpactoftheAsilomarmeeting,andimportantadvancesinAIthatincludedAIalgorithmsandtechnologiesstartingtoenterdailylifearoundtheglobe,spurredtheideaofalong-termrecurringstudyofAIanditsinfluenceonpeopleandsociety.TheOneHundredYearStudywassubsequentlyendowedatauniversitytoenable 1“OneHundredYearStudyonArtificialIntelligence(AI100),”StanfordUniversity,accessedAugust1,2016,https://ai100.stanford.edu. Theoverarchingpurpose oftheOneHundredYearStudy’speriodicexpertreviewistoprovideacollectedandconnectedsetofreflectionsaboutAIanditsinfluencesasthefieldadvances. extendeddeepthoughtandcross-disciplinaryscholarlyinvestigationsthatcouldinspireinnovationandprovideintelligentadvicetogovernmentagenciesandindustry. Thisreportisthefirstintheplannedseriesofstudiesthatwillcontinueforatleastahundredyears.TheStandingCommitteedefinedaStudyPanelchargefortheinauguralStudyPanelinthesummerof2015andrecruitedProfessorPeterStone, attheUniversityofTexasatAustin,tochairthepanel.Theseventeen-memberStudyPanel,comprisedofexpertsinAIfromacademia,corporatelaboratoriesandindustry,andAI-savvyscholarsinlaw,politicalscience,policy,andeconomics,waslaunchedinmid-fall2015.Theparticipantsrepresentdiversespecialtiesandgeographicregions,genders,andcareerstages. TheStandingCommitteeextensivelydiscussedwaystoframetheStudyPanelchargetoconsiderbothrecentadvancesinAIandpotentialsocietalimpactsonjobs,theenvironment,transportation,publicsafety,healthcare,communityengagement,andgovernment.Thecommitteeconsideredvariouswaystofocusthestudy,includingsurveyingsubfieldsandtheirstatus,examiningaparticulartechnologysuchasmachinelearningornaturallanguageprocessing,andstudyingparticularapplicationareassuchashealthcareortransportation.Thecommitteeultimatelychoseathematicfocuson“AIandLifein2030”torecognizethatAI’svarioususesandimpactswillnotoccurindependentlyofoneanother,orofamultitudeofothersocietalandtechnologicaldevelopments.Acknowledgingthecentralrolecitieshaveplayedthroughoutmostofhumanexperience,thefocuswasnarrowedtothelargeurbanareaswheremostpeoplelive.TheStandingCommitteefurthernarrowedthe focustoatypicalNorthAmericancityinrecognitionofthegreatvariabilityofurbansettingsandculturesaroundtheworld,andlimitsonthefirstStudyPanel’sefforts. TheStandingCommitteeexpectsthattheprojections,assessments,andproactiveguidancestemmingfromthestudywillhavebroaderglobalrelevanceandismakingplansforfuturestudiestoexpandthescopeoftheprojectinternationally. TABLEOFCONTENTS PREFACE EXECUTIVESUMMARY4 OVERVIEW6 SECTIONI:WHATISARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE?12 DefiningAI12 AIResearchTrends14 SECTIONII:AIBYDOMAIN18 Transportation18 Home/ServiceRobots24 Healthcare25 Education31 Low-resourceCommunities35 PublicSafetyandSecurity36 EmploymentandWorkplace38 Entertainment40 SECTIONIII:PROSPECTSANDRECOMMENDATIONSFORAIPUBLICPOLICY42 AIPolicy,NowandintheFuture42 2APPENDIXI:ASHORTHISTORYOFAI50 AsoneconsequenceofthedecisiontofocusonlifeinNorthAmericancities,militaryapplicationsweredeemedtobeoutsidethescopeofthisinitialreport.Thisisnottominimizetheimportanceofcarefulmonitoringanddeliberationabout theimplicationsofAIadvancesfordefenseand