2026年融合展望：创造性破坏的新节奏（第一版）

Outlook 2026 The new timing of creative destruction A NOTE FROM FTSG Hey—where’s my trend report? You’re right to ask. This would have been FTSG’s 19th annual TechTrends Report. Instead, we made a deliberate choice to retire the format. This year marks the launch of something new: the first edition ofour Convergence Outlook. You’re still getting our best-in-classresearch. What’s changed is our framing. The insights aheadare designed to be more urgent, more actionable, and far morerelevant to the decisions leaders are facing right now. If the old trends report helped you see what’s coming, we built ourConvergence Outlook to help you decide what to do next. More on why we made this shift—and what it means for you—inthe pages that follow. Introduction 06 Welcome to our Convergence Outlook08Letter from Amy Webb12Why Everything Feels Like it’s Changing at Once14From Foresight to Action16What’s Really Changing (and What That Means)18 The Global Operating Environment20 Technology Forces24Economic Forces30Geopolitical Forces36Demographic and Social Forces44Environmental and Climate Forces50 Convergences60 The Convergence Landscape62 Section One: Power Is Physical Again66Compute Shock68Polycompute92 Section Two: When Machines Take the Wheel108Agentic Economies and Post-Search Internet110The New Labor Equation140 The Corporate Panopticon194 Section Four: When Systems Become Alive214Living Intelligence216Programmable Biology242 Section Five: Who We Turn To Now260Autonomous Care262Emotional Outsourcing276 298 The Wrong Kind of Ready300What Durable Companies Do Differently302How Much Time Do You Have?304Where Are You Exposed?306 FTSG308 About FTSG310Contact Us311Authors312Disclaimer316Use of the Convergence Outlook 2026317 Introduction Welcome to ourConvergence Outlook Change nowspreadssidewaysas fast as itmoves forward. For nearly two decades, trend analysis has helpedleaders anticipate change by revealing earlypatterns across technology, science, economicsystems, environmental conditions, and socialbehavior. That work remains essential. At FTSG, we continue to tracktrends rigorously, because early signals of change stillmatter. But the environment that leaders are operating intoday has shifted in a fundamental way. The future no longer arrives one trend at a time. Technological progress, scientific breakthroughs,regulatory shifts, capital constraints, geopolitical pressures,and human behavior are increasingly interacting with oneanother. Barriers between systems have disappeared, asthe forces of disruption amplify, accelerate, or destabilizeone another. Change now spreads sideways as fast asit moves forward. The result is disruption that is faster,broader, and harder to isolate. In this environment,understanding individual trends is necessary, but it’sinsufficient. That gap is why we created the Convergence Outlook. Our definition of convergence A convergence is when multiple trends, forces,and uncertainties intersect and interact to create acombined impact that is greater—and often differentin kind—than the sum of their individual effects. The Four Rules of Convergences Are system-level changes.1 Convergences don’t just pile trends on top of each other.They operate across different domains, making themhard to see unless you are doing a specific type of cross-domain analysis. Create net new realities.2 What seemed inconceivable becomes inevitable, notgradually but suddenly, even though all the pieces werevisible beforehand. Redistribute power and value.3 Convergences influence who wins, what’s valuable,and where there is leverage. They rewrite competitivedynamics, not just within industries but across them. Are hard to reverse.4 Because multiple systems reinforce each other,convergences establish new market realities faster thantraditional changes, making early detection increasinglycritical. External Forces Trends, forces, uncertainties, and catalysts shaping the operating environment. Convergence External forces intersect and interact to create impact greater than any one force on its own. Strategic Action Focused commitments and choices driven by key convergences. Strategy ensuresthe right forcesare being monitored. Our approach combines quantitativeanalysis with expert qualitativejudgment. We analyze large-scaledata across thousands of primarysources using our proprietarysystems, alongside human-ledresearch spanning technology,science, economics, policy, andsocietal change. This work builds onnearly two decades of continuousforesight research across industriesand geographies. Strategy identifiesand assessescritical convergences. From this foundation, we identifyunderlying trends and the externalcatalysts that accelerate or constrainthem. We then cluster interactingforces to surface convergencesand rigorously stress-test each oneagainst multiple operating contexts,time horizons, and failure modes.Only those that withstand this vettingprocess are included in the O