行业衰退指标：信贷团队如何及早发现风险

May 2025 Early risk signals for credit teams This watchlist is designed to help credit professionals flag early signs of risk by identifyingindustries in Australia that are showing signs of structural or cyclical decline It supports faster, more consistent credit screening by highlighting sectors where long-runchallenges, such as sustained revenue contraction, regulatory headwinds or technologicaldisruption,may affect a borrower's viability.while not a replacement for borrower-level duediligence, it provides valuable context on broader industry conditions. Each industry listing includes: ••••IBISWorld Risk Rating·5-Year Revenue CAGR (%):Life Cycle Stage·Key Decline Driver Use this tool to strengthen early-stage credit reviews and prioritise high-risk sectors for closerassessment. 1. Footwear Manufacturing in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.50 (Medium-High)5-year Revenue CAGR: -4.9%Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by continued market oversaturation from domesticcompetitors, such as do-it-yourself (DlY) substitutes and sustained revenue contraction thatcreated a prolonged period of demand losses. 2. Photographic Equipment Retailing in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.37 (Medium-High)5-year Revenue CAGR: -4.7%.Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by continued market oversaturation from domesticcompetitors such as online shopping retailers and sustained long-run revenue contractionthatcreated a prolonged period of demand losses. 3.Professional Photographic Services in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.625-year Revenue CAGR: -0.9%Life Cycle Stage:Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by the oversaturation of digital substitutes, such as Alimage generators and higher input costs for new purchases and labour amid inflation that ateinto profitability. 4.Machine Tool and Parts Manufacturing in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.86 (Medium-High)5-year Revenue CAGR: 0.9%.Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by the oversaturation of foreign import competition thatdrove price fluctuations and sharp labour input cost spikes amid inflation that ate intoprofitability. 5. Copper Tubes and Wire Manufacturing in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 6.50 (High)5-year Revenue CAGR: 2.9%Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by sharp influence from foreign competition such asimported plastic tubes and a sustained revenue contraction driven by higher domesticcompetition from lower-cost aluminium alternatives. 6. Metal Coating and Finishing in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 6.41 (High)5-year Revenue CAGR: -3.7%. Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by sustained revenue contraction that drove downprofitabilityforinvestors and heavy influencefrommarket oversaturation of domesticcompetitors, such as plastic and timber substitutes. 7.Communication Equipment Manufacturing in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.64 (Medium-High)5-year Revenue CAGR: -6.7%Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by heavy competitive influence from foreign imports andsustained revenue contraction due to higher competitive input from software suppliers. 8.Newsagents and Book Retailers in Australia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.75 (Medium-High).5-year Revenue CAGR: -7.3%LifeCycleStage:Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by heavy domestic competition from digital media andonline shopping competitors and sustained revenue contraction that drove down servicedemand over a prolonged period of time. 9.Video Game, DVD and Recorded Music Retailing in Australia •••IBISWorldRiskRating:5.67(Medium-High)5-yearRevenueCAGR:-6.1%·Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is primarily influenced by robust digital media competition, such as digitaldownloads and sustained revenue contraction driven by prolonged digital proliferation that ateinto downstream demand 10.FootwearWholesalinginAustralia •••IBISWorld Risk Rating: 5.50 (Medium-High)5-year Revenue CAGR: -1.1%·Life Cycle Stage: Decline Industry decline is influenced by market oversaturation from footwear manufacturers, higherpurchase input costs amid inflationary pressures and continued influence of foreigncompetitors, such as imported footwear. About IBisWorld Over more than 5oyears,IBisWorld has evolved to be the global leader in industry researchIBisWorld's exceptional team of analysts leverage reliable data, proprietary forecast modelsand innovative methodology to provide independent, cutting-edge industry information. IBisWorld's unrivaled online database gives users insights into thousands of industries,enterprises and economic drivers globally and in the United States, Canada, Australia, NewZealand, China, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Having built longstandingrelationships with clients all overthe world, IBiswWorld helps businesses achieve t