迈向东盟-日本下一代汽车产业总体规划，协调产业转型、脱碳和区域竞争力

Towards an ASEAN–Japan Next-GenerationVehicle Industry Masterplan AligningIndustrial Transformation, Decarbonisation,and RegionalCompetitiveness Key Messages: 1.ASEAN’s automotive transitionmustfollowvariedandcarefully sequenced pathways. A differentiated transition thatsustainsinternal combustionengine (ICE) and hybrid electric(HEV) vehicle production whilescaling plug-in electric vehicle(xEV) is essential to preservecompetitiveness,employment,and investment capacity acrossthe region. ASEAN’s automotive industry is entering a critical transition phase as electrification,digitalisation, and decarbonisation reshape global vehicle markets. While electricvehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating across ASEAN, the region faces structuralchallenges: policy uncertainty, prolonged market stagnation, and fragmentedindustrial competitiveness. At the same time, ASEAN remains a vital productionbase in the global automotive value chain, particularly for internal combustionengine (ICE) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). 2.Policy predictability–nottechnology – is now the mainconstraintoninvestment. This policy brief draws on ERIA’s ongoing work under the ASEAN–Japan Co-CreationInitiative and the proposed ASEAN–Japan Next-Generation VehicleIndustry Masterplan. It argues that ASEAN’s transition should followvaried,differentiated pathwaysrather than a single, linear electrification trajectory. Aphased and diversified approach– combining ICE, HEV, xEV, sustainable fuels,and mobility services – is essential to preserve industrial competitiveness whileadvancing climate objectives. Clear, credible, and regionallyalignedpolicysignalsareurgentlyneeded to unlockprivateinvestment in next-generation vehicles and supplychains. The brief outlines a strategic framework built around three pillars: (i) technologyandmarket transition pathways;(ii)industrial transformation throughdecarbonisation, digitalisation, and servitisation; and (iii) strengthened regionaland ASEAN–Japan collaboration. It concludes with policy recommendationsto enhance policy predictability, mobilise investment, and position ASEAN as aresilient and competitive hub in the global next-generation vehicle ecosystem. 3.FragmentationiserodingASEAN’sautomotivecompetitivenessrelativetoChinaandIndia.Withoutdeeperregionalintegrationandmarketaggregation, ASEAN risks losingscale advantages in the globalautomotive transition. 1. Background: ASEAN at a Turning Point in Automotive Transformation 4.ASEAN–Japanco-creationprovidesanactionablepathwayfromstrategytoimplementation.TargetedcollaborationwithJapan can accelerate supplierupgrading,regulatoryalignment,and technology diffusion acrossvaried powertrains and mobilityservices. ASEAN countries are shifting into a higher gear in the global race toward next-generation vehicle manufacturing. Several ASEAN Member States (AMS) aremoving beyond their traditional roles as vehicle importers or assemblers and areincreasingly positioning themselves as full-fledged producers across a range ofpowertrain technologies. Recent developments illustrate this momentum. In December 2025, Malaysia’slargest automaker, Perodua, unveiled its first domestically developed electricvehicle (EV), the QV-E – marking the emergence of ASEAN’s second national EVbrand after Viet Nam’s VinFast. Indonesia, meanwhile, has adopted a transitionstrategy similar to Thailand’s, leveraging foreign investment and policy incentivesto develop domestic EV manufacturing capacity. Between February 2024 andDecember 2025, Indonesia imported more than 125,000 battery electric vehicles(BEVs)under a temporary import duty waiver, with mandatory localisationrequirements taking effect from January 2026. As a result, BEV sales in ASEAN are projected to reach 12%–17% of total vehiclesales in 2025 – significantly higher than global averages just two years earlier.These figures reflect strong policy signals and rising consumer acceptance. Yet beneath this encouraging momentum lie deeper structural challenges thatthreaten ASEAN’s long-term competitiveness if left unaddressed. This approach balances near-term economic resilience withlong-term technological transformation. 2. Structural Challenges Facing ASEAN’s AutomotiveIndustry 2.1. Investment Hesitation amidst Policy Uncertainty 4.Strategic Framework I:Technology and MarketTransition Pathways ERIA surveys indicate that automotive suppliers and originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)remain cautious aboutcommitting new investment in next-generation technologies.The primary concern is not technological readiness, but policyuncertainty – particularly regarding long-term powertrainstrategies, fiscal incentives, and regulatory standards. 4.1. 2025–2035: Dual-Track Development During the next decade, ASEAN should prioritise meetingstrong regional demand for ICE and HEVs while acceleratingxEV market development. Sustainable biofuels play a crucialrole in aligning ICE and HEV production with decarbonisationtargets. Inconsistent poli