霍尔木兹海峡中断：对全球贸易和发展的影响

Implications for Global Trade and Development Introduction The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints,carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes ofliquefied natural gas and fertilizers. The ongoing military escalation in the regionhas disrupted shipping flows through this narrow passage. The resulting rippleeffects go far beyond the region, affecting energy markets, maritime transportand global supply chains. These developments raise concerns for global trade and developmentprospects. Oil markets have reacted quickly, with Brent crude prices now risingabove US$90 per barrel. Higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs – includingfreight rates, bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums – may increase foodcosts and intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable. Similar repercussions were observed during recent global shocks, including theCOVID-19 pandemic and at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, which showedhow disruptions in energy, transport and agricultural inputs can propagateacross interconnected markets. The current shock comes at a time when many developing economies struggleto service their debt, face a tightening of fiscal space and limited capacity toabsorb new price shocks. While the overall global economic impacts will depend on the duration and scaleof the disruption, the situation highlights the importance of continued monitoring,particularly implications for vulnerable economies. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passagefor world trade. Share of global seaborne trade volume passing through theStrait of Hormuz, one week prior to the conflict, per cent Notes:In 2024, total oil transported through the Strait was around 20 million barrels per day (bpd), or the equivalentof 25 per cent of global seaborne oil trade. Crude oil and condensate account for 14 million bpd and petroleumproducts for 6 million bpd. LPG: Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas, dry bulk includes grains. But ship transits through the Strait ofHormuz have come to a near halt. Total number of daily ship transits through Strait of Hormuz Source:UN Trade and Development, based on data provided by Clarksons Research Shipping IntelligenceNetwork. Disruptions in the Strait compromiseenergy supplies, particularly to Asia. Volume of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportedthrough Strait of Hormuz in 2024 per day, by destination And energy markets have immediatelyreacted to the shock. Daily oil and gas prices, 1 January 2024–9 March 2026 Source:UN Trade and Development, based on LSEG Data & Analytics. Notes:Oil prices correspond to the price of crude oil, Brent, US$ per barrel. Gas prices correspond to DutchTTF Natural Gas Futures, EUR per megawatt hour. 1/3 of global seaborne trade in fertilizerspasses through the Strait. Types of fertilizers, 16 million tonnes, transportedby sea from the Persian Gulf region in 2024 Source:UN Trade and Development, based on Kpler 2025 data and an unpublished detailed version ofUNCTAD seaborne trade data. The published version of the data is available at https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/ Access to fertilizers may worsen forsome of the poorest countries. Share of fertilizers imported by sea and originating from thePersian Gulf region in 2024 Note:Fertilizer refers to HS code 31. Ripple effectscan travel far When oil prices go up,food prices often go up. Monthly food price index and crude oil prices, January 1990 toFebruary 2026 Food price indexOil prices Source:UN Trade and Development, based on the FAO Food Price Index and the World Bank (Pink Sheet).Note:Oil prices correspond to the price of crude oil, Brent, US$ per barrel. When gas prices go up,fertilizer prices often go up. Monthly natural gas price index and prices of selectednitrogenous fertilizers, January 1990 to February 2026 Note:Fertilizer prices in US$ per metric tonne. Natural gas index corresponds to the average gas prices of Europe,US and Japan (LNG), with weights based on 5-year average consumption volumes. Freight costs for shipping oil aresoaring to historic highs. Daily Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and Clean TankerIndex (BCTI), August 1998–6 March 2026 Note:The BDTI and BCTI show the cost of shipping oil on a basis of the average costs of major shipping routes. Cleantankers carry lower-sulfur petroleum, including refined petroleum products. Dirty tankers mostly carry crude oil. And the cost of marine fuel used byships is rising too. Daily bunker fuel prices in Singapore, US$ per tonne Source:UN Trade and Development, based on Clarkson Research Services Limited 2026. Note:Singapore is the largest bunkering fuel port. Sulphur content of low sulphur fuel is capped at 0.5%,while it can reach up to 3.5% for high sulphur fuel. War risk insurance premiums are surging,adding to the shipping cost. Ship value used for calculation$100 million Premium increase