中东冲突如何影响供应链

Executive summary This report examines the supply-chain implications of the current Middle Eastconflict and the wider disruption across the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC).As the situation is changing fast, any statements in this report should be clearly Although the geopolitical trajectory remains uncertain and is outside the scopeof this paper, the consequences for global supply chains are already becomingvisible. The clearest transmission channels are energy prices, critical industrial Taken together, these create a broader risk to input costs, lead times, cash flow,and supply continuity across multiplesectors. Contents Energy The first and most visible supply-chain effect is the energy shock emanating from the GCC. TheStrait of Hormuz is a global energy choke point, being the transit route for: ~20%of globalliquefied naturalgas (LNG)trade ~20%of globalpetroleumliquids consumption ~25%of global seaborneoiltrade Bypass capacity for oil exists in the form of overland-pipeline capacity via Saudi Arabia andthe UAE pipeline. However, this bypass capacity is only sufficient for approximately half of theoil produced in the Gulf, meaning substantial volumes would remain exposed to potential Hormuz is primarily an Asia energy supply corridor for both oil (~84%) and LNG (~83%). Still,due to the global and crucial nature of themarkets: •Brenthas risen by 25% (91 USD per barrel as of March 11 versus 73 USD/bbl as of February 27 —after a temporary spike over 100 USD/bbl).•European gasfutures have risen by 56% (50 EURper megawatt-hour as of March 11 versus 32EUR/MWh as of February 27 — after a temporary spike over 60 EUR/MWh). •Jet fuel priceshave increased by 58% (157 USDper barrel weekly average as of March 6versus 99 USD/bbl as of February 27), with a crack spread increase of 157% (72USD/bbl weeklyaverage as of March 6 versus 28 USD/bbl as of February27). Other key input commodities The shock extends beyond oil and gas markets. The GCC is also a major source of industrialinputs that sit upstream in the food, manufacturing, and healthcare supply chains. Concretely,the region is a major exporter of key inputs such as fertilizers for crops, aluminium for cars, or •Ureais a critical commodity for global food systems, with more than 33% of global ureashipments passing the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar closed its largest facility after a drone attack, •Methanolis a traded industrial feedstock, with Saudi Arabia and Iran producing ~20% ofglobal supply. Prices have gone up 17% (2,539 CNY per ton as of March 11 versus 2,165 •Phosphatefertilizers are critical inputs for food systems, with Saudi Arabia-based Ma’adenalone supplying 20% of the global phosphate trade. Prices have risen by 4% (653USD per •Ammoniais a fertilizer- and chemicals-critical feedstock, used directly in fertilizers and as anupstream input for urea, ammonium phosphates, and industrial chemicals. Saudi Arabia is •Sulphuris a critical industrial input, used mainly to make sulphuric acid for fertilizers andmetals processing. The UAE are the world’s biggest exporter, with a share of ~23%. Prices •Polymersare critical industrial inputs for supply chains — used in packaging, automotiveparts, construction materials, consumer goods, and electrical applications. Saudi Arabiaand the UAE account for ~20% of global polyethylene (PE) trade and ~18% of globalpolypropylene (PP) trade. Prices for polyethylene are up 15% (7,601 CNY per ton as of •Primary aluminumis a manufacturing-critical input used in transport, construction,packaging, and electrical applications. The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) account for ~8% of global supply, with Europe depending on the region for ~20% of •Heliumis a high-criticality industrial gas, used in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)systems, semiconductors, fiber optics, welding, and scientific/cryogenic applications. Qatar Asia-Europe transportation The crisis is not limited to commodity markets. It is already feeding directly into freight availability,transit times, and transport costs in Asia–Europe corridors. Various closures of the Red Sea have •Longer shipping routes:Maersk is rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and suspending allvessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, adding 8 to 15 days to Asia–Europe •Insurance and booking constraints:CMA CGM introduced an emergency conflict surchargeof $2,000 per 20-foot container, $3,000 per 40-foot container, and $4,000 per reefer/specialcontainer for specified Middle East cargo scope as of February 28. After protection & indemnity •Transport costs:CMA CGM introduced an emergency fuel surcharge of $150 per 20-footequivalent unit (TEU) for headhaul dry cargo, $180/TEU for headhaul reefer, $75/TEU forbackhaul dry cargo, and $90/TEU for backhaul reefer, effective March 16. For a 40-footcontainer, that equates to an 11% to 14% increase on baseline prices of $2,094/FEU for •Dubai, the world’s largest airport,shut down and had only partiall