使用人工智能、机器人和量子技术重置健康生产力

Quantifying the productivity potential of AI, robotics, andquantum for clinical care, pharma, medtech, and payers Contents Executive Summary401UnpackingFutureHealthcareSpending61.1Projectionsofglobalhealthcareexpendituresfrom2025to 204071.2Reducing2040’s$8.6trillionchallenge111.3Howhealthcare’sfivesectorswillcontributetorising costs141.4Focusingonproductivityiskeyto solvingthespending crisis1602TheProductivityOpportunityforHealthcare:AI,Robotics,andQuantum Technologies172.1Artificialintelligenceisreadytobecomehealthcare’sproductivity engine182.2Specialist roboticswillscalefasterinthecoming decades212.3Thedisruptivepotentialofhumanoid robots232.4HowtheconvergenceofAIandroboticsacceleratestheproductivity potential272.5Quantumtechnology:The acceleratoronthe horizon3003ProductivityPathways:HowAdoptionChoicesWillShapeHealthcareSystem Outcomes323.1Productivityoutcomesareafunctionof choice333.2Sectorswhereproductivitycanscale fastest343.3Scenariooverviewand outcomes363.4Howthethreescenariosmightplay out393.5Investmentrequiredtounlockproductivityat scale403.6Regionaldivergenceandspendingrebalancingproductivityoutcomes diverge413.7Bottomline:Productivityisa choice4204TheFiveCriticalEnablersNeededtoMaketheProductivityReset Happen434.1Technologyinvestment:Buildingthefoundationfor scale444.2Capabilityandtalentinvestment:Themissinglinkbetweentechnologyand impact464.3Changingreimbursementsystemsandliabilityrulestoscale automation474.4Modernizingregulatoryframeworksto enableautomation innovation484.5Movingfromlabor-centrictotechnology-enabledhealth systems4905SelectHigh-ImpactExamplesfromtheOliverWymanHealthTechnologyUseCase Database505.1Clinicalcaredelivery:Productivityunderlaborandcapacity constraints515.2Pharmaceuticals:Bringingproductivityto R&D,manufacturing,and regulation545.3Medicaldevices:Productivityacrossinnovation,manufacturing,andinstalledbase performance575.4Healthinsurance:Productivityacrossadministration,riskmanagement,andcare coordination605.5Governmentandpublichealth:Productivityassystemstewardshipand resilience6306Callto Action766.1Aproductivityresetmaymeanmorepeople-centered healthcare776.2Changesneedtobesystemwidetogainenough traction786.3Balancingambitionwith realism78Endnotes79 Lead Authors OliverEitelwein,Ph.D.Partner,GlobalHeadPerformanceTransformationLifeSciences,Oliver Wyman DavidB.Duong,MD,M.P.H.Director,PrograminGlobalPrimaryHealthCare,HarvardMedicalSchool,andBrighamandWomen’s Hospital David_Duong@hms.harvard.edu oliver.eitelwein@oliverwyman.com Oliver Wyman Contributors ThibaultWautier,Pharm.D.Principal,Oliver Wyman DominiqueDesrochesEngagementManager,Oliver Wyman PatWechslerEditorialDirector,OliverWyman MarisaFlignorPrincipal,Oliver Wyman Expert Support Oliver Wyman FraunhoferInstituteforManufacturingEngineeringandAutomation(IPA) ChrisBernenePartner AndreasTraubeHeadofBusinessUnitHealthIndustries MartinSchultePartner MalteVolkweinHeadofSegmentDigitalHealth TerryStonePartner BirgitGrafSenior Expert Healthcare Robotics IgorBelokrinitskyPartner ChristophEybergExpert Healthcare Robotics FelixDiehlmannPrincipal MercerMarsh Benefits DespoinaEleftheriadouAssociate LornaFriedmanPartner Design LaurenceDenmarkCreativeDirector,Miko Executive Summary Globalhealthcaresystemsandtheirsubsectorsacrossclinicalcare,pharma,medtech,andpayersareapproachingastructuralinflectionpoint.Agingpopulations,persistentworkforceshortages,andrisingunitcostsforeachconsultation,procedure,andepisodeofcarearecollidingwithdeliverymodelsthatremainhighlylabor-intensiveandadministrativelycomplex.Withoutdecisiveintervention,globalhealthcarespendingisprojectedtonearlydoubleinrealterms—from$11.8trilliontodayto$23.1trillionby 2040. 1.Artificialintelligence:Withagenticsystemsbasedonlanguagemodels,AIhasreachedastagethatnowshiftsfromlimitedtasksupporttofullworkflowandsystemorchestrationcapabilities,enablingdisruptiveshiftsthatimprovehealthcare’s productivity. 2.Robotics(physicalAI):Specialized roboticsalreadydeliver15%to30%timeandcostsavingsandhaveexpandedintoawidevarietyofareasincludingsurgery,logistics,labs,operations,andsupportfunctions.Humanoidrobotswillscaleoverthecomingdecadeandhold the potential to automate areas facinglaborshortages,includinghomecareandothersectorsservingacohortofpatientsover age 65. This expansion would outpace economic growthinmostmajorregionsandmateriallyincreasehealthcare’sshareofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).1Oftheprojected$11.3trillionincreaseinspending,roughly$2.7trillionisstructurallylockedinduetopopulationgrowth.Thelargershare—around$8.6trillion,or76%—reflectsrisingsysteminefficienciesashealthcarestruggles to meet growing demand amid laborshortages,fragmentedoperatingmodels,andarisingchronicdisease burden. 3.Quantumtechnology:Emergingasalonger-termaccelerator,itwilldrasticallyexpandin use and reduce the cost of computingpower,whilefurtherpro