Tourism Market Report - 2025 Q3 - BCD Tourism

Travel Market Report September 2025 Produced by Research & Intelligence Travel Market Report Welcome to the latest edition of theTravel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. The Research & Intelligence team This quarter’sTravel Market Reportbegins with a summary of the InternationalAir Transport Association’s (IATA) latest outlook for the airline industry in 2025and compares it to the predictions for this year it had previously made in its Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence Sticking with airlines (and IATA), we present an update on the performance ofthe global airline industry so far this year. The new U.S. administration has been busy implementing multiple immigrationrule changes aimed at improving the control and security of its borders. Weprovide a summary of some of the key developments. We’ve conducted some detailed primary research among a panel of travelbuyers. We share their main insights about sourcing and supplier management. We finish this quarter’s report with the highlights of a recent traveler survey, inwhich we learnt more about their experiences and preferences when bookingaccommodation for a business trip. Update on globalairline traffic North America weighing on global growth, but latest numbers more positive At4.0%, July’s increase in global airline traffic meant a third consecutive month of3-5%growth.1Afterthe disruption caused to year-over-year comparisons by Easter’s later timing in April, a market trend isnow emerging of steady growth, albeit at around half of 2024’s level. Domestic demand increased by Regional perspective In 2025’s first seven months,domestic air travel demandrose by just2.1%. However,some major markets,including Brazil and India, In the first seven months of 2025, airline traffic grew by5.0%, combining2.1%and6.9%growth fromdomestic and international traffic, respectively. Emerging markets drove this growth, with Asia Pacificleading the way with an8.3%expansion in demand. Latin America (7.6%) and Africa (6.7%) also Even the4-6%growth inChina and Japan was above aglobal average, which wasdepressed by continued This weakness was echoed byJuly’stotal traffic numbers for In a month when global airlinetraffic increased by4.0%year-over-year, demand in NorthAmerica rose by1.9%.Whilethis improved on recentmonths, it was still below the2.9%delivered by Europe, a Even the mature European market has performed reasonably well so far this year, with4.4%growthfalling just short of the global number. And the Middle East, where traffic has been disrupted bygeopolitical events, posted growth of5.1%. This leaves North America as the standout region, withairline traffic being essentiallyflatso far this year, weighing on global growth. And yet, after settingaside the effects of the later timing of Easter, the monthly numbers provide some reason to be morepositive about the North American situation. After dipping by0.5%in May, traffic was flat in June and Growth stayed strong in AsiaPacific and Latin America and U.S.immigration rulechanges U.S. government tightening entry requirements During 2025, U.S. government departments have been acting to reinforce the control and protection of the country’s internationalborders. This has implications for business travelers and travelprograms, which must navigate new rules and added complexity. On June 9, the U.S. government reinstated and expanded atravel banimpacting nationals of 19 countries. This was justified on national security grounds relating to terrorism concerns,inadequate vetting and high visa overstay rates. Nationals from 12 “very high-risk” countries are now barred from entering the U.S.: Afghanistan, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Both immigrant and non-immigrant visas are fully suspended. A further seven countries are subject to partial bans. Specific visa categories have been suspended for nationals from Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela. Importantly, the restrictions bar most visa types used by businesstravelers. It is possible to seek a waiver or an exception, but this must be done during the visa application process. Exceptions may be made if a traveler’s entry to the U.S. is in the national pilot program, starting August 20. So far, the scheme applies only to nationals from two countries, Malawi and Zambia, but othercountries could be added. Critically, the pilot program seemsunlikely to affect travelers fromVisa Waiver Program(VWP) countries. Business travelers, who are citizens or nationals of 42 designated countries,2including 32 in Europe, as well as Australia,Brunei, Chile, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, should be exempt. Currently, business travelers with passports issued by Malawi and Zambia may berequired to pay a $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 bond, which will be forfeited if the terms of the visa ar