人形机器人硬件价值链：欧洲制造业能否把握人形机器人的发展机遇？

Can the European Manufacturing Industry Capitalize on theHumanoid Momentum? Table of contents Management summary02 THE HUMANOID HARDWARE VALUE CHAIN1.Point of Departure041.1.DefinitionHumanoidRobot071.2.TargetMarketsandCurrentDevelopments072.Hardware Maturity and Architecture for Humanoid Robots093.Assessment of Critical Hardware Components163.1.SensingLayer-TactileSensors173.2.Actuation Layer - Electric motors183.3.ActuationLayer-Reducers213.4.Structural and energy layer - Batteries234.Humanoid Hardware Cost Model255.Can European Manufacturing Capitalize on the HumanoidMomentum?27 Management summary THE HUMANOID HARDWARE VALUE CHAINStructural change in the manufacturing industry, especially in the automotive sector,isacceleratingthesearchfornewgrowthopportunities.Humanoidroboticsisgainingstrategicrelevanceasafuturemarketthatcloselyalignswithestablishedcompetenciesin automation, mechatronics, and industrial manufacturing. Early engagement in thehumanoidhardwarevaluechainoffersEuropeanmanufacturersatangibleopportunitytocapturevalueinthisemergingfield.Marketprojectionsindicatesubstantialgrowthpotential.The global humanoid robotics market is expected to reach a volume ofapproximatelyUSD30billionby20301.Long-termscenariosprojectaworldwideinstalledbaseofseveralhundredmillionhumanoidrobotsby20502. These developments highlightthe relevance of early engagement with the underlying value chain. Thiswhitepaperanalyzestheroleofhardwareinthecontextoftheindustrializationofhumanoidrobots.Despiteadvancesinartificialintelligence,theeconomicviability,reliability,andscalabilityofhumanoidsystemsarelargelydeterminedbyhardwarecomponents.Atpresent, standardized hardware architectures are lacking, and key components such asactuators,gearboxes,batteries,andsensorsonlypartiallymeetindustrialrequirementsintermsofrobustness,lifetime,andcoststructure. Toquantifythesechallenges,thestudycombinesalayeredanalysisofhumanoidhardwarearchitectureswithabottom-upcostmodel.Theresultingcostscenarios,summarizedinFigure 1,enable a structured comparison of low-,mid-,and high-cost humanoidconfigurationsandillustratehowdifferenthardwarechoicestranslateintooverallsystemcost.Theanalysishighlightshardwarecomponentsthatdominateoverallexpenditureandrepresentkeychallengesforcost-efficientscaling,particularlyforhumanoidsystemsintended for continuous industrial operation. ForEuropean manufacturers,this represents a concrete strategic opportunity.Thecapabilitiesrequiredforhumanoidhardware,includingprecisionmechatronics,advancedmanufacturing,and system integration,align closely with established strengths ofEuropean automotive suppliers and mechanical engineering companies. Capturing value in this emerging market will depend on a focused engagement in the development andindustrializationofcost-andperformance-relevanthardwarecomponents,combinedwithearlyandclosecollaborationwithhumanoidOEMs. 1.Point of Departure THE HUMANOID HARDWARE VALUE CHAINThe manufacturing industry is undergoing a structural transformation. In particular,automotive manufacturers and their supplier networks are under pressure as rising energycosts,geopolitical tensions,and intense global competition reduce traditional valuecreationandemploymentvolumes.Againstthisbackground,manyindustrialactorsareseekingadjacentmarketsinwhichexistingcompetenciesinautomation,mechatronics,precisionmanufacturing,andindustrializationcanbeleveraged,bothtocompensatefordeclining volumes and to open up new growth opportunities. Inthiscontext,humanoidroboticshasgainedstrategicrelevance.Theobjectiveofcurrentdevelopmenteffortsisauniversallydeployablerobotthatcanoperateinenvironmentsdesignedforhumans,beitinindustrialoralsoprivatesettings.Publicdemonstrationsofhumanoidrobotsillustrateprogressinmanipulation,locomotion,andinteractionandhavedirectedindustrialattentiontowardthistechnologyfield.Asaresult,expectationshaveemergedthathumanoidsystemscould,overtime,contributetotheautomationoflabor-intensivetasks. Theseexpectationsaresupportedbymarketprojections.P3marketmodelsestimatethattheglobalhumanoidroboticsmarketcouldreachavolumeofapproximatelyUSD30billionby2030,correspondingtoacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofaround~60percent.Longtermscenarios,includingthosepublishedbyCitiGroup,projectaglobalinstalledbaseofupto648millionhumanoidrobotsby2050.3 Thecurrent momentum in humanoid platform development is often attributed toadvancesinartificialintelligence.Toanequalextent,however,itisenabledbyhardwareavailability.Accordingtomarketestimates,asubstantialshareofthevaluecreationofhumanoidsystemsisattributabletohardwarecomponents(seeFigure2).Sensors,electricdrives, power electronics, and computing units originating from the automotive andautomationsectorshaveaccelerateddevelopmentandenabledrapidprototypingaswellas early industrial pilot applications. However, when these components are consideredforcontinuousindustrialoperationinhumanoidsystems,limitationsbecomeapparent.Theselimitationsarisenotfrominsufficientqualityofthecompone