中国：中国人民银行在推动人民币缓慢升值方面又迈进一步

Asia Insights 20 March 2026 Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: The PBoC is moving one more step towardsslow RMB appreciation Research Analysts Asia Economics Jing Wang - NIHKjing.wang@nomura.com+852 2252 1011 The PBoC raised the “adjustment parameter for macro prudential management” onoversea loans extended by onshore corporates from 0.5 to 0.6, effectively raisingcorporates’ oversea lending limits. In our view, this adjustment represents one more steptowards slow RMB appreciation, especially against the basket, followingpreviousmeasuresof cutting FX risk RRR and promoting cross-border interbank RMB financing. Harrington Zhang - NIHKharrington.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2057 Considering that RMB has appreciated by about 4% against its basket since late January,we believe the PBoC might become concerned about the potential adverse effects of a Hannah Liu - NIHKhannah.liu@nomura.com+852 2252 1082 Ting Lu - NIHKting.lu@nomura.com+852 2252 1306 Recent steep appreciation of RMB against the basketAmid the PBoC’s latest measures inlate Februaryto cut FX risk RRR and promote cross- border interbank RMB financing and a rebound in USD amid the outbreak of militarytensions in Middle East, the pace of RMB appreciation against USD has slowed over thepast couple of months. However, RMB has recorded notable gains against the basket.Amid renewed USD strength and the largely steady USD/CNY, RMB’s value against itstrade-weighted basket has risen by 2.5% since late February and 3.6% since late January The RMB appreciation pressure has prompted a high conversion of FX to RMB. Banks’net FX purchases from (or net sales of RMB to) corporates and households jumped arecord high of USD100bn in December, before moderating to USD89bn in January andUSD55bn in February. When customers convert their FX into RMB and deposit it in banks,all the RMB remains in the banking system, and there is no change in the total supply ofRMB interbank liquidity. In practice, however, due to the reserve requirement ratio on A unified new framework for corporate oversea loans The new measures introduced today integrate RMB and FX overseas lending under asingle set of rules, eliminating the previous dual-track system. Registration is now handleduniformly before disbursement, with a strict two-year validity period for any unused quotas.The most visible change is the upward adjustment of the macro prudential coefficient to These latest adjustments build on earlier reforms that occurred in 2016 and 2021. Theofficial Q&A from the PBoC accompanying the notice explains that the changes aim “tobetter meet the genuine and reasonable production and operational financing needs of The central mechanism Production Complete: 2026-03-20 18:14 UTC The heart of the system is a simple but powerful macro prudential formula (Article 10): Lending ceiling = audited owners’ equity (the latest financial period) × macroprudential coefficient (lifted to 0.6 from 0.5)• Actual balance used = Σ (all lending) + Σ (foreign-currency lending) × currencyconversion factor (currently 0.5)• The actual balance used is limited to the lending ceiling. The currency conversion factor adds a 50% risk-weighting to FX loans, unchanged from RMB100 loan = RMB100 used against the ceiling.•Foreign-currency of RMB100-equivelent loan = RMB150 used (100 principal + 50• This will make it easier for foreign currency lending to hit the ceiling – a mechanismretained by the PBoC and SAFE to encourage the prioritisation of RMB lending over FXlending, or the so-called "domestic-currency priority" principle, as highlighted in the official We believe the PBoC reiterated this "domestic-currency priority" principle mainly to clarifythat a 20% increase in the macro prudential coefficient (to 0.6 from 0.5 of own equity)does not automatically translate into a 20% increase in the total amount that can be lent inFX, and to dispel any impression that this policy change has direct policy implications for Simple example:A firm with RMB1bn in owners' equity now has a ceiling of RMB600mn(RMB1bn × 0.6). If it lends the entire amount in RMB, it can deploy the full RMB600mn.However, if it lends the same amount in USD, the weighted usage reaches RMB900mnUSD-equivalent – exceeding the ceiling. Hence, it can lend only ~RMB400mn in FX beforehitting the limit, which strongly incentivises RMB lending. Under the previous setting (0.5macro prudential coefficient), the total quota would have been RMB500mn, and the total Historical evolution of the currency conversion factorThe currency conversion factor was first introduced in 2016 underPBoC Notice [2016] No. 306at an initial value of 0, treating RMB and foreign-currency lending identically. Noweighting existed at the onset; the focus was on establishing a basic macro prudential In February 2021, two official documents were released to adjust the framework (via PBoC Notice [2020] No. 330andPBoC & SAFE Notice [2021] No. 2), with the currencyconversion factor ris