顺周期β与优质资产α，现金流双引擎护航高息
公司评级增持（首次） 顺周期β与优质资产α，现金流双引擎护航高息 报告日期2026年03月21日 投资要点： ⚫香港楼市β：市场已具备量价齐升的必要条件，上行周期开启。需求端：2025年12月平均租金回报率（3.43%）已高于平均H按利率（3.25%），“租不如买”支撑需求释放。价格信号：中原城市领先指数（CCL）在2026年第10周已创2024年以来新高，“买涨不买跌”心理或刺激购买意愿。供给端：刚性库存已下滑，截至2025年末，已竣工未售单位数量为2.3万个，较2024年末下滑14.8%。财富效应：恒生指数2025年涨幅达27.8%，具有一定财富效应。 相关研究 分析师：孙钟涟S0190521080001请注意:孙钟涟并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的活动。sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫公司自身α：香港土储规模位居行业TOP 2，拿地渠道多元且成本优势显著。截至2025年上半年，公司持有香港应占土储1190万平方英尺，位列港资开发商TOP 2。公司通过政府招拍挂、市区旧楼重建及新界农地转换等多种方式获取土地，拿地成本低。其中，旧楼重建项目均位于市区、成本低于招拍挂；公司更是香港最大的新界土地持有者，截至2025H1持有新界土地达4190万平方英尺，其中超90%位于北部都会区发展规划范围内，未来无论通过政府收地补偿还是自行补地价开发，均能获得丰厚利润。 分析师：宋健S0190518010002BMV912songjian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫现金流双引擎：核心商业资产与燃气业务贡献稳健现金流，支撑高额稳定派息。2019-2024年公司股息总额维持87.15亿港元，每股派息维持1.80港元。公司持有香港IFC等核心资产，2019-2024年期间物业租赁贡献应占经营利润维持61~71亿港元区间。公司持有香港中华煤气41.53%股权，后者作为香港独家管道燃气运营商，执行稳定的派息政策，2021-2024年期间公司每年获得来自香港中华煤气的股息收益均为27.12港元。我们判断每年公司来自香港中华煤气应占股息收益高度稳定，叠加来自物业租赁应占经营利润具备较强抗周期性，两者预计可以支撑每年股息支出总额保持稳定。 ⚫首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级：我们预计随着香港楼市成交量价齐升，公司盈利能力、净资产价值均有望改善，派息也有望维持稳定；预计公司2025-2027年核心净利润分别为80.68/91.14/103.06亿港元，分别同比-17.5%/13.0%/13.1%；每年每股派息维持1.80港元。2026年3月12日收盘价对应TTM股息率为5.8%，PB为0.47，首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。 ⚫风险提示：公司派息不及预期；香港新房成交量价复苏不及预期；中环新海滨3号项目资本开支超预期。 Henderson Land Development（00012.HK） Stock Connect (SH/SZ) Report DateMarch21, 2026 Cyclical Beta & Quality Asset Alpha, DualCash Flow Engines Underpin Dividend Investment Highlights: ⚫Hong Kong Property Marketβ:The market now meets the necessary conditionsfor a simultaneous rise in both transaction volume and prices, with an upward cycleunderway. 1)Demand side: In December 2025, the average rental yield (3.43%)exceeded the average H Mortgage rate (3.25%), supporting the release of demand.2)Price signal: The CCL hit a new high since 2024 in 10th Week of 2026, which maystimulate buying sentiment under the“buy on strength, not on weakness”. 3)Supplyside: Rigid inventory has declined. As of the end of 2025, thenumber of completedbut unsold units stood at 23,000, down 14.8% from the end of 2024. 4)Wealth effect:The Hang Seng Index rose 27.8% in 2025, generating a notable wealth effect. Related Report Analyst：Jian SongS0190518010002BMV912songjian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫Top 2 landbank scalein Hong Kong, with diversified land acquisition channels andsignificant cost advantages. As of 1H 2025, the company held 11.9 million sq.ft ofattributable land bank inHong Kong, ranking TOP 2 among Hong Kong-listeddevelopers. It secures land through multiple channels including government tenders,urbanredevelopment, and New Territories agricultural land conversion, with low landcosts.Urban redevelopmentprojects are located in urban areas with lower costs thantender sites.The company is also the largest landholder in the New Territories, holding41.9 million square feet as of 1H 2025, over 90% of which is within the NorthernMetropolis development area. It will benefit substantially either from government landresumption compensation or premium payment for self-development. Analyst：Zhonglian SunS0190521080001Notice: Zhonglian Sun is notlicenseholders registered at the Securities andFutures Commission (SFC), and is notallowed to engage in regulated activitiesin Hong Kong.sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫Dual Cash Flow Engines: Core commercial assets and gas business deliver stablecash flow, supporting high and consistent dividends.From 2019 to 2024, totaldividends remained at HK$8.715 billion, with DPS stable at HK$1.80. The companyowns prime assets including Hong KongIFC. Attributable operating profit fromproperty leasing stayed within HK$6.1–7.1 billion during 2019–2024.It holds a 41.53%stake inHKCG. From 2021 to 2024, the company received a consistent HK$2.712billion in annual dividend incomefrom HKCG.We expect highly stable dividendincome fromHKCGand resilient operating profit from property leasing, which togethercan support steady annual total dividend payouts. ⚫Initiate Coverage with“Overweight”Rating: We expect improving profitability, NAV,and stable dividends amid a recovery in Hong Kong’s property market volume andprices. We forecast core net profit for 2025–2027 at HK$8.068bn / 9.114bn / 10.306bn,representing changes of-17.5% / +13.0% / +13.1% YoY respectively. Annual DPS isexpected to remain at HK$1.80. Based on the closing price on March 12, 2026, thestock trades at a TTM dividend yield of 5.8% and a P/B ratio of 0.47. ⚫Potential risks：Lower-than-expected dividends;Weaker-than-expected recoveryofHong Kongpropertymarket;Higher-than-expected capital expenditure for theNewCentral Harbourfront Site 3 project. 目录 一、公司基本情况..........................................................................................5二、市场的β：香港楼市开启量价齐升周期..................................................7三、α能力：香港土储TOP 2，多元化拿地渠道........................................10四、现金流双引擎：商业地产+香港中华煤气.............................................13（一）核心商业资产贡献稳健租金收入.......................................................13（二）香港中华煤气贡献稳定分红收益.......................................................1
