Atradius经济展望：人工智能热潮拯救于危难之中

Saved by theAI boom Table of Contents Executive summary 1.Global economic environment 1.1 AI boom masks trade war impact1.2 PMIs support upward revisions1.3 AI boom assumptions1.4 AI investments lift global trade1.5 Commodity prices move to new equilibrium1.6 Inflation worries fading1.7 Fed to loosen further1.8 Fiscal policy support under stress 2.Advanced economies 2.1 Advanced economies to lose momentum in 20262.2 Eurozone: inflation continues to normalise2.3 US: a two-speed economy2.4 UK business activity picks up despite weaker growth outlook2.5 Japan: more fiscal stimulus on the way 3.Emerging market economies 3.1 EMEs’ outlooks more resilient to external headwinds3.2 China’s economy slowing below 5%3.3 India continues to lead growth3.4 Mexico outlook hinges on USMCA renegotiations3.5 Brazil: tight monetary policy cools economy off3.6 Türkiye remains committed to fiscal prudence3.7 Russia’s economy moving toward stagnation Appendix Executive summary Global growth in 2025 has been surprisingly resilient, driven by anunprecedented boom in AI-related investment, particularly in theUnited States. Despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty,massive capital flows into AI infrastructure–datacentres, chips, andpower upgrades–haveprovided a significant boost to economic ◼Global GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 2.6% in 2026 and recover slightly to 2.8%in 2027. The US is expected to maintain growth around2.0% in both years, whileEmerging Asia remains the global growth leader, albeit at a somewhat lower rate. Theeurozone is projected to see muted growth,at0.9% in 2026 and a mild rebound to 1.6% ◼Global trade growth, after a temporary lift in 2025, is expected to decelerate sharply. Trade grew by an estimated 3.5% in 2025, buoyed by frontloading and AI-related goods,but is forecast to stagnate in 2026 before recovering to around 2% in 2027. The tradewar’s impact, though less intense than initially feared, continues to weigh on the outlook, ◼Advanced economies are set for subdued growth, with increasing divergence.The USeconomy is running on two tracks: robust AI-driven investment contrasts withweakening momentum in the broader real economy. The eurozone’s growth is supported ◼Emerging market economies (EMEs) remain more resilient but face headwinds. EMEs areforecast to grow by 4.0% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, with India leading at over 6% growth.China’s growth is expected to slow below 5% as export momentum fades and structuralchallenges persist. Many EMEs benefit from integration into AI value chains, but are also ◼A sharp decline in confidenceinthe future benefits of AI could trigger an abrupt end tothe current investment boom, resulting in a pronounced AI bubble burst.In thisdownsidescenario, US tech stocks would fall by around 25%, leading to a significant lossof household wealth and a sharp slowdown in consumer spending and corporateinvestment, particularly in the technology sector.Exports would decline,business 1.1AI boom masks trade warimpact Figure1.1 Policy uncertainty fallsfrom record high In our July Outlook we focused on the impact the unfoldingUS-initiated trade war was expected to have on the globaleconomy. We argued the US economywasdragging down That view did not come out of the blue. The trade policy shockwas unprecedented, bringing the effective tariffs of imports ofthe largest economy in the world up from 2.5% to 17.8% in justa few months. What was arguably even more important,uncertainty around global trade policy more broadly had shotup over fears for tit-for-tat tariffs from the rest of the world. Second, and crucially, in 2025 we observe a massiveescalation of investment in AI infrastructure, such as datacentres, chips and power upgrades in the US. These investments are expected to grow to USD 340 billion in 2025,3from USD 197 billion in 2024, a rise of more than 70%.Thiscomes in addition to an expected USD 112 billionofprivate AIinvestment covering corporate AI R&D, venture capital and AI-focused startups,reflectinga moderate growth of 3% in 2025after a surge in 2024 of more than 60% (figure 1.2). Total AI-investment boosted GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points Six months on, the situation has turned out betterthan feared:the global economy is showing resilience. This, we think, is First, as we document trade in this Outlook, the trade war hascontinued, but with less intensity than envisaged in July. Theactual effective tariff imposed issignificantly lowercomparedto the announced nominal effective tariff (see section 1.4). Retaliation measures were imposedonlyby China, the maintarget of the US trade war. Even these were relaxed after theTrump-Xi meeting in October.2Moreover, tariffs, often alreadylower than initially announced, were ‘agreed’ with a host ofother countries as well as the EU, without triggering minerals while the US paused its own export controls related to national securityrules, for a period of a year.We take the midpoint of the estimate