鲍威尔：美联储政策“仍略有限制性”；人工智能资本支出是否在拯救美国？瑞典央行降息25个基点

Powell: Fed "still modestly restrictive"; is AIcapex saving the US? Riksbank cuts 25 Mixed PMIs in US & Europe; taking profitdownunder USA:Manufacturing PMI (Sep):Down 1pt to 52, below mkt.USA:Current account deficit (Q2):Narrows to USD251.3bn, below mkt.USA:Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (Sep):Up 5.2pts to-12.3.USA:Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sep):Down 10pts to-17, below mkt.EMU:Composite PMI (Sep):Up 0.2pts to 51.2, above mkt.UK:Manufacturing PMI (Sep):Down 0.8pts to 46.2, below mkt.SWE:Riksbank:Cuts rate by 25bps to 1.75% on weak economic activity. US equities wereweakerTuesday, S&Pdown 0.6%, led bytech. US10yr yieldsdown 4bps to 4.11. Fed’s Powell:Policystanceis“still modestly restrictive”; two sided risks mean“no risk free path” ahead; hiring “below breakeven”,whilestudies suggest AI“not the mainreason”.Recent price increases “largely reflect tariffs”, Fed will“make sure” one off impact from tariffs don’t drive ongoing inflation.Long-runinflation expectationsare“in line” with 2% target. Fed’s Bowman: Immigration “doesn’t explain”extent of hiring slowdown, “moreconfident” tariffs will have a small inflation effect, “will need faster cuts if jobmarket continues worsening”. Fed’s Goolsbee: “Neutral is 100-125bps below current rate”, thinks Fed is“mildlyrestrictive”. Small misseson US PMIs,Manufacturingdown 1pt to 52 in preliminary read forSeptember, consensus at 52.2.Similarly,services down 0.6pts to 53.9,consensus looked fora 0.5pt decline.All up,fairly close to expectations and stillresilient. Richmond Fed manufacturingmissed,down 10pts to-17 in September. Mixed euro PMIs.Manufacturing missed, down 1.2pts to 49.5 in prelim read forSeptember, consensus looked for a steady print.Servicesup 0.9pts to 51.4,consensus looked for a steady print here as well. Overall, composite PMIup to51.2, highest sinceMay 2024. Riksbankcut by 25bps to1.75%, consensusexpected nochange, albeit only bya slight majority. Guidance points tosteady policy rate from here: “if outlook …holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come”. George SaravelosthinksAI machines–quite literally–are saving the USeconomy right now.In the absence of tech-related spending,the US would be close to, or in, recession this year. This spendingreflectsthe massive capexboom taking place to build up AI infrastructure, and appears to be the missingingredient to multiple macro puzzles:(1) themassive slowdown in employmentgrowth-typically accompanied by recessions–isin this instance beingcompensated by AI-driven capital deepening; (2) the surprising resilience ofglobal trade; (3) the discrepancy between sentiment indicators on capex whichcover the broad economy, versus the highly concentrated data centerinvestments;(4) the massive outperformance of tech earnings in the S&P 500and (5) the continued softness of inflation as broader demand conditions remainweak.Once the factories have been built, will the productivity gains from AI takeover?And will benefits of that accrue globally or locally?The answers will be keyto UISD in the medium term. Threats to Fed independence remain a central focus in US rates markets,butrelatively little of this is priced in the Fed path, breakeven inflation, or termpremia,notesMatt Raskin.It could be thatthe marketdoes notanticipate ameaningful inflationary change in the Fed’s reaction function.Anotherpossibility is thatmarket signalsareobscured by other offsetting downwardpressures on rates, including possible administration policies to contain yields. Meanwhile, Mattnotesthatterminal Fed rate pricing and timing are very closeto where they were one year ago. It isnotable that the market isn’t pricing anotably lower terminal or accelerated pace of cuts given the focus on politicalpressures on the Fed. With AUD/NZD now exceeding his target of 1.12, and key front end ratespreads lifting to ~80bps,Lachie Dynan istakingprofiton those trades (+2.8%in FX, +60bps in rate spreads). Where tofrom here?Lachieremainsupbeat onAUD more broadly, but isturninghisfavoured cross-market expression of thatto long AUD/CAD).He hasturnedneutral on the broader NZD, where things arelooking more balanced. The day ahead Australia CPI for August.Consensus looks for a 2.9%yoy headline, DB slightlystronger at 3%. Details matter more than headline, as they willinform our nowcastfor Q3 trimmed mean. Previewhere. JapanPMI’sSep. Germany IFO, Sep. US building permits&new home sales, both August AMERICAS USA: Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Down 1pt to 52, below mkt. The services PMI declined 0.6pts to 53.9 in September. As a result, thecomposite PMI dropped 1pt to 53.6. USA: Current account deficit (Q2): Narrows to USD251.3bn, below mkt.The goods and services deficit narrowed to USD190.4bn in Q2. USA: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (Sep): Up 5.2pts to-12.3.New orders dropped 21pts to 0.5 in September, while prices paid declined4.4pts to 38.8 and full-time employment rose 13.2pts to 9.4. USA