美元信用供应监测

2 March 2026Date $-Credit Supply Monitor Karthik NagalingamUS Credit Strategist $IG: A busy February keeps $IG at record pace in 2026 nGross $IG issuance maintained a record pace through February with$190bn of supply last month.Given blackout periods around quarterlyearnings, February always leans far more toward Non-Financial issuers andthis year was no different with three-quarters of monthly supply comingfrom Non-Fins (Fig. 1,3). The heavy Financial supply in January andmoderate uptick last month leaves Fin net supply near ’23 & ’24 levels andwell ahead of what we saw last year. YTD net Non-Fin supply has similar Steve Caprio Head of European and US Credit Strategy+44-20-754-16176 Emilie CalderEuropean Credit Strategist+44-207-330-7500 Asim Kaul Research Associate nThe hyperscaler supply as well as M&A activity has boosted longer-datedissuance. Nearly 20% of $IG issuance last month had a maturity of 30+yr,and nearly 52% of issuance in February matures in 10+yrs (Fig. 5 &6). Thatis the largest monthly percentage of longer-dated (10+yr) issuance sincelast February, but in raw terms overall issuance was much larger this year.This is one factor whywe prefer 3-7yr portion of the $IG curve, where theremay be relatively less technical pressure. More hyperscaler deals may nTwo main themes of Q4’25 have largely carried over into 2026.First, wasthe pick-up in duration as discussed above with issuers growing morecomfortable with rates remaining relatively higher-for-longer, and theincrease in capex spending across a few industries necessitating issuanceright away. The second theme was thesharp increase in higher-ratedissuance, driven in part by Technology. For the third month in the last fourmonths, a large hyperscaler deal that brought a significant amount of $AAor $A paper to the market as the Alphabet deal priced bonds across USD,CHF, and GBP markets – with $20bn in USD. On top of that there were bigFinancial and Healthcare deals that added to the $AA deluge. It was the forecast and historical trends point to around $200bn of issuance thismonth. There could be a slight pause early this month as issuers wait togauge the market reaction to the US military action in Iran. While front-month oil prices have moved higher, risk markets do not seem to be pricing in a protracted military engagement and so high-grade markets could startfunctioning normally in the coming days. As we mentioned in our recentweekly technicals piece, lower yields could lead to marginally weaker $HY: Supply growth is moderate, but uncertainty rises n$HY supply has been consistent at moderate levels over the last 4months,led mainly by $BBs. Gross supply totaled $29bn in February, whichwas the busiest month since the massive September last year, andmaintains the steady month-on-month growth October slowed. The firsttwo months of 2026 have been mildly busier than the same months in 2025(Fig. 15) despite a significant number of geopolitical tensions, includingtariff headlines in January and renewed US attacks on Iran over the nWhile gross supply has been solid in recent months, $HY net supplyremains subdued(Fig. 16). $BB issuance continues to see strong growth(Fig. 17,18), while $B supply has stagnated at historically average levels inrecent months and CCC issuance remains weak. The lack of momentum insub-BB supply can partly be attributed to lower-rated issuers migrating to$Lev Loans and/or Private Credit, but also highlights the relatively tighter n$HY Cyclical issuance outpaced Non-Cyclicals last month.Technology($5.8bn) and Consumer Cyclical ($6.6bn) issuers led the way in $HY lastmonth, and there was solid supply from Cap Goods and Energy as well. TheTech activity highlights how the recent Software weakness has not stoppedhigher-rated issuers to price deals. However, we maintain that the currentvaluation backdrop is not sustainable and that $BB spreads are at risk of nPotential increased volatility, stemming from both the Middle-East andcontinued AI-disruption fears, leads to a wide distribution of outcomesfor $HY primary this month. The overall direction likely hinges on whereoverall risk sentiment goes in the coming weeks along with US Treasuries.There is not an imminent maturity wall concern within $HY Tech, as within$HY there is very little sub-BB Tech debt that needs to be refinanced in thenext 3 months – with less than $850mn coming due by Jun’27. Separately $IG Supply Charts Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 8: Non-Fin supply was tilted to higher qualityissuers following the two large hyperscaler deals 2 March 2026US Credit Strategy $HY Supply Charts Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloom