美元信用供应监测

$-Credit Supply Monitor Karthik NagalingamUS Credit Strategist $IG supply makes history again, technicals may besoftening n$IG issuance surprised to the upside for the second straight month.$IGjustrecorded the busiest October on record($131bn),following aSeptember that was the fifth-largest monthly total ever. The upwardsurprise comes as $IG yields had been near 14-month lows until backing upsignificantly last week. Obviously $30bn of that supply came from themassive Meta deal, which is now tied for the 5th largest deal all time.Outside of that deal, supply had been slightly tilted toward Financials($57bn) versus Non-Fins ($73bn), given that the majority of banks reportfirst. The upside surprise over the past two months means that $IG gross Steve Caprio Head of European and US Credit Strategy+44-20-754-16176 Emilie CalderEuropean Credit Strategist+44-207-330-7500 Research Associate nFor a third straight month there has been a sizable pickup in longer-datedissuance.The share of 30yr $IG issuance as percentage of overall supplyover the past six months has grown for a second straight month. Low overallyields, a pickup in M&A activity, and the jumbo Meta deal all accounted forthe increase in +30 year supply. The recent pickup can be partially attributedto Chair Powell’s dovish shift at Jackson Hole, and so the more balanced nBetween US banks reporting mid-month and the Meta deal last week,higher-rated issuance led the way. 80% of $IG Financial supply last monthwas $A rated, relative to 63% of total financial issuance prior to October.While in Non-Financials, just 31% of supply last month was $BBB relativeto 56% of total supply in the first nine months of the year. Communications Looking ahead, November is typically slightly busier than Octoberwith most activity focused in the first three weeks. $IG supply did not drop off asmuch this October as we laid out above, and November could be quite busyas well with animal spirits rising, more capex being announced, andfunding costs still relatively attractive. The first couple weeks of Novembertypically see around $30bn of volume on average over the last 6 years, but nWith supply continuing to come in at the top of estimates, cash technicalscould be less positive this month. As we highlighted in our recent weeklytechnical monitors, the strong technicals of this summer have started tonormalize. Net supply could continue growing through next month beforeeasing in December. There is roughly $100bn of coupons, maturities, and $HY supply fell off in October as market volatility rose andinvestor sentiment faltered nAfter a massive September, $HY issuance in October ($17.8bn) was thelowest since Apriland the second lowest month this year. At $17.8bn, $HYgross supply last month is well below last year’s $24bn but is still trendingjust above last year’s run rate (+3% y/y), while net supply is now below lastyear’s trend (Fig. 17, 18). $HY yields since August have been bouncing near nThe vast majority of lower-rated issuance continues to go towardrefinancings. The current low-yield backdrop has incentivized $B issuers inparticular to continue addressing maturity walls over the next two years n$BBs continue to be the main driver of $HY net supply.While we expectnet supply to continue tailing off into year end, as typically happens withsupply slowing post Q3 earnings, there are signs that $BB issuers remainactive. There has been a pickup in M&A/LBO activity, especially relative to nGiven a lack of gross supply, most sectors saw net supply contract lastmonth. $HY Technology was the only cyclical sector to net supply growth,while Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials saw the largest contraction. nLooking forward to November, technicals in $HY are mixedas flowsappear to be slowing and there are many facets to the upcoming supplypicture. $HY fund flows have rolled over in recent weeks as risk sentimentshifted mid-month following worries about private credit and then Fed nOn the positive side, we are expecting at least $19.3bn in coupons,tenders, and maturities this monthwith the potential of an additional $20bn of further out maturities that could be dealt with in the weeks ahead.However, with fixed rate yields still low relative to loan yields, a potentiallynegative technical risk would be an uptick in loan-to-bond deals given themore favorable pricing in the fixed-rate market. In addition, more issuers $IG Supply Charts Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP $HY Supply Charts Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomb