巨额盈余：采购应如何适应石油结构性供应过剩

Executive Summary The oil industry’s greatest discipline hasproduced its greatest glut. After years of capitalrestraint and operational optimization, producersnow face a market drowning in its own efficiency.Brent crude trades in the mid-$50s in early 2026 Competitive advantage now comes from costposition and operational agility, not productionvolume. Companies unable to reduce operatingexpenses by 8-15% will see margins compress Non-OPEC+ producers led by the United States,Brazil, Guyana and Canada continue addingbarrels through technology gains rather than rigexpansions. OPEC+ sits on 5.5 million barrelsper day of spare capacity, crushing any price To help oil and gas leaders navigate the strategicimplications of this reconfigured landscape, thispaper examines demand, supply, inventories, Demand grows, but barely. The <1% annualincrease concentrates in non-OECD Asia andthe Middle East. OECD consumption plateaus as This is the new equilibrium: capital discipline isstructural, not cyclical. Operators sustain outputthrough enhanced completions, longer lateralsand AI-powered workflows rather than adding Key Takeaways The Shock That Changed Everything(2022–2024) 2022: Shock, Security andMarket Rewiring The Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022 put energysecurity at the center of global policy and corporatedecision-making.¹ Governments responded withsanctions, price caps, emergency fiscal support and Russian crude redirected toward Asia at discountedprices,³ while Europe scrambled for replacementsfrom the United States, the Middle East and Africa.⁴These changes introduced lasting fragmentation, The United States released more than 180 millionbarrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during2022–2023 to counter supply disruption risks.⁶ This 2023: Demand RecoveryWithout a Traditional SupplyResponse Mobility returned. Global oil demand reboundedsharply, with aviation and non-OECD consumptiondriving the recovery.⁷ Global liquid fuels consumptionaveraged above 102 million barrels per day in Yet something fundamental had changed. High pricesin 2022–2023 failed to trigger the expected supplysurge. Upstream operators chose discipline overgrowth.⁹ They prioritized balance-sheet strength,free cash flow and shareholder returns. This marked Jet fuel demand rebounded sharply in 2023.International travel recovery drove a 33% year-on-year increase, especially across Asia-Pacific and theMiddle East.¹¹ OPEC+ reasserted supply discipline 2024: Moderation and the ShiftToward Efficiency-Led Supply On the supply side, the nature of productivity gainsshifted. Rig productivity began to flatten.16Operatorsturned to enhanced completion designs, longerlaterals and digital analytics to sustain output andreduce unit costs. Digital twins, real-time geosteering By 2024, global demand growth slowed to below1% year-on-year.¹³ Macroeconomic headwinds,efficiency gains and EV adoption moderatedconsumption growth in advanced economies.14 to rise, reaching approximately $570 billion.19Yetcapital remained concentrated in short-cycle projects,brownfield developments and advantaged basins, Global liquid fuels consumption averagedapproximately 102.8 million barrels per day in2024.18Further increases were projected into 2025 The Coming Glut:Outlook for 2026 As the industry progresses through 2026, the marketbalance is expected to shift decisively toward surplus.Global oil demand continues to grow, but incrementalconsumption is expected to come almost entirelyfrom non-OECD economies.20Asia accounts forthe majority of new demand. Despite accelerating Supply growth increasingly outpaces demand.Non-OPEC+ producers—the United States, Brazil,Guyana and Canada—remain as the dominantsources of incremental supply.²³ Efficiency gains, OPEC+ maintains elevated spare capacity throughvoluntary production cuts,25providing a buffer againstdisruptions while simultaneously capping upside pricepotential. It suppresses long-dated futures curves. These dynamics translate into sustained inventorybuilds, particularly across OECD countries.27Elevatedcrude and refined product stocks—especially dieseland gasoline—place pressure on refinery margins28and weigh on near-term pricing. Forward price curves Price forecasts reflect these fundamentals. Brentcrude prices are projected to average in the mid-$50s per barrel range in 2026,30driven by inventory Capital Allocation & Investment:Recovery Without Expansion Capital allocation patterns entering 2026 reinforcethis structural equilibrium. Upstream spending hasremained well above pandemic-era lows, exceeding Operators continue to prioritize capital efficiency,shareholder returns and short-cycle investments overaggressive production growth.³² Investment favors National Oil Companies account for a growing shareof global upstream investment, particularly in theMiddle East.34Private operators are constrained Geopolitics & Policy:Persistent Background Risks Geopolitical and policy risks remain embeddedin oil