2026年全球人力资本趋势：从紧张到临界点——选择人力优势

Deloitte’s Human Capital professionals make humans better at work and work better for humans. We collaborate using a data-driven scientific approach to unlock human potential by bringing our full suite of human capital capabilities. This allows us to By placing humans at the centre of successful transformations, together we build future-focused organizations. Ready for bothtoday’s challenges and tomorrow’s opportunities. Visit the Human Capital area ofDeloitte.comto learn more. 02 . . . From tensions to tipping points: Choosing the human advantage 08 . . . Getting human and machine relationships rightTable of contents 31 . . . Dealing with AI’s cultural debt From tensions to tipping points: The 2026 Global Human Capital Trends survey reveals the intentionalchoices organizations can make to adapt continuously, move with Shannon Poynton, Jason Flynn, Nic Scoble-Williams, Victor Reyes, David Mallon, and Sue Cantrell The classic S curve of growth has long describedhow businesses and work evolve: gradual lift, rapidacceleration, and eventual plateau. Today, thatcurve is compressing. AI and workforce transfor-mation are accelerating the climb and bringing theplateau sooner (figure 1). Organizations are pressedto leap to the next curve more quickly to remain Control or empowerment? Stabilityor agility? Automation or augmen-tation?Last year, we explored thesetensions and the need to navigate the edges of these questions. Organizations are nolonger just trying to balance competing forces: They In our 2026 Global Human Capital Trends survey,7 in 10 business leaders say their primary compet-itive strategy over the next three years is to be fastand nimble—to quickly adapt to and capitalizeon changing business, customer or market needs. Today, new data and workforce insights—rang-ing from organizational digital twins to real-timeanalytics—make it possible to see where an organi- Figure 1 The traditional ‘S curve’ that defines business evolution is compressing deloitteinsights.com Three tipping points shaping the future of work Historically, organizations jumped the curve by adding new tech-nology, a strategy that may no longer be enough. Organizations What makes this moment different is that the pressures on organi-zations are no longer sequential, but compounding. Technologicaladvancement is converging with economic volatility, geopoliticaltensions, societal expectations, and a rapidly shifting workforce.The boundary between planning and execution is collapsing, evenas cost pressures, efficiency mandates, and questions of trust and Competitive advantage is now primarily less driven by technol-ogy differentiation and more by cultivating the human edge.Technology—especially something as increasingly ubiquitous asAI—is replicable. People aren’t. Humans create competitive differ-entiation through adaptivity, creativity, and judgement amid uncer- Indeed, recent Deloitte research with 100 C-suite leaders revealsthat most organizations (59%) are taking a tech-focused approachwhen it comes to AI. But those taking a tech-focused approachare 1.6x more likely tonotrealize returns on AI investments that In moments of discontinuity, leaders face a choice: remain tetheredto the old curve or leap boldly to the next. Winning organizationssee tipping points as an opening rather than a crisis but changingthat mindset isn’t easy. Letting go of familiar models, rewiringassumptions, and bringing people along require courage, discom- This human-centric focus allows organizations to confidently jumpthe curve rather than stay on the same curve, or worse, fall off the deloitteinsights.com In 2026, three tipping points stand out as especially important—moments where leaders will need to decide whether to cling tothe old curve or leap to the next. Each tipping point represents ashift that organizations can no longer defer. They are not distantpossibilities but present realities, demanding choices that will define From cost efficiency to value creation Relentless cost pressures, changing consumer and worker behaviors,and geopolitical shifts have pushed many organizations towardefficiency at all costs. But as that model tips, the focus should shifttoward value. This means evolving functions to be fit-for-purpose,investing in innovation, and prioritizing growth through adaptabil-ity rather than simply reducing expense. At the same time,demo-graphic shifts and disappearing workforcesare making human From human + machine to human x machine The boundaries between humans and machines are blurring.Organizations will likely need to redesign work to harness human–machine synergy, moving beyond having humans and machineswork side by side. This includes a rethinking of culture, decisionrights, and trust in data itself. The questions are fundamental: How From static plans to dynamic orchestration The future is both here and unknown, making curiosity a core orga-nizational capability. Staying relevant means continually reimag-ini