新兴亚洲区域经济展望-2024年11月

Economic powerhouse, Table of Contents China: policy stimulus will not prevent GDP growth from slowing furtherIndia: remaining the world’s fastest growing major economyASEAN-5: favourable growth prospectsEmerging Asia maintains role as economic powerhouse despite headwinds Executive Summary Multiple sources of growth Several factors have positioned Emerging Asia as the world’s main growthengine. The main factors underlying the region’s strong dynamics in the lastfour decades are a large and growing labour force, trade liberalisation and Reaping the demographic dividend, but less so One factor that has played an important positive role in the past and is losingstrength now is the labour force. For most countries, ageing populations are nota major problem, but for China and Thailand it is. Increasing productivity growthto compensate is difficult for China, despite heavy investments in newtechnologies. Reasons are the economy’s rebalancing away from investment- Global trade deterioration with mixed effects Given the deterioration of the global trade climate, the region’s strong positionin international supply chains could also contribute less to growth. However,this is currently only the case for China. For countries whose trade relationsremain intact the damage is limited. Their economies will be affected by thenegative impact on the global economy and the associated supply chain Monetary easing and strong exports support growth The short-term growth outlook is positive for most economies. Strongerexports will continue to grow into 2025, albeit at a less robust pace. In mostcountries, monetary easing will support growth. This picture does not apply toChina, where persistent problems in the property sector and low consumerconfidence led to weakening consumer spending. Monetary easing and fiscalstimulus will provide relief in the short term, but will do too little to address thebroader structural problems in the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, export growth Coping withageing and aworsening local businesses to access a wider range of inputs andtechnologies. Meanwhile, open-market policies attractedforeign direct investments (FDI). By creating a favourablebusiness environment, they have drawn in manymultinational companies that wanted to make use of lowproduction costs and new markets to sell their goods.Supportive also were free-trade agreements within the Multiple sources of growth Emerging Asia has long been the world’s fastest-growingregion. In the 1980s and 1990s, industrialisation andeconomic reforms, provided a significant boost to growthin countries such as China, Malaysia, and Thailand. Thefrontrunners in the region, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, grew so strongly during thesedecades that they are now considered advanced instead ofemerging economies - and fall outside the scope of thispublication.1But in fact, all economies in the region posted Emerging Asia’s transformation into an economicpowerhouse has been driven by multiple sources ofgrowth. One of these, which we will discuss in more detaillater in this publication, has been the region’sgrowing anddeveloping workforce. A steady supply of workers fuelledindustrial growth and urbanisation. As millions moved to Since the early 2010s,technological adoptionincreasinglysupported growth. The rapid spread of the internet andmobile technology revolutionised industries and openednew avenues for innovation. Countries like China, India andIndonesia invested in digital infrastructure, facilitating e-commerce, digital payments and online services. India and Meanwhile, lessons learned from the Asian crisis led to Figure 1 High growth, slowing in the course of time sound government policies, Countries realised the need forprudent fiscal policies, controlled inflation, and sustainabledebt levels to build economic resilience. Because the crisishad highlighted the vulnerabilities in financial systems, theauthorities undertook reforms to deepen and broaden theirfinancial markets. This included improving regulatoryframeworks and developing better risk management In this publication, we provide insights into the growthprospects of Emerging Asia. For the short term, it shouldbe clear that the region can still benefit from the sources ofpower that have driven the strong economic dynamics of Trade liberalisation and economic reformsalso playedtheir part. Many countries lowered tariffs and other trade age population (age 15-64), which is relevant for economicgrowth, already peaked eleven years ago. This decline willexert upward pressure on wages, and the growingpopulation aged 65 and older will squeeze pension andhealthcare provision. An important reason for the declineof the labour force has been the one-child policy, whichwas abolished in 2016, leading to a temporary rise in the have played an important positive role in the past arelosing strength. For the medium term, the growth of theworking population is relevant, which is now weake