高加索和中亚：2025年2月在转型中迷失

Caucasus and CentralAsia: lost in After becoming independent from the Soviet Union, the countries in the Caucasus and CentralAsia (CCA) underwent a turbulent transition to market economies, with varying degrees ofsuccess. The 1990s were marked by strong reform efforts, leading to high economic growth, corruption measures. Armenia has also made progress,though at a slower pace compared to Georgia. Incontrast, Turkmenistan remains highly centralised andstate-controlled, with little progress in implementingmarket reforms. Uzbekistan has also been slower to Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia1achievedindependence in 1991 after the Soviet Union dissolved.Following this, they began a transition from Sovietcommand economies to market economies during the1990s. The success of this transition varies Since 1995, the CCA region has managed to slightly narrowits income gap with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)region (excluding the Gulf states). Since 2015, however, thegap has widened again, as several countries in the MENAregion, such as Djibouti, Israel and Malta enjoyed relativelyhigh income growth. The income gap between the CCA Most CCA countries are still closely associated with Russiathrough the Commonwealth of Independent States2(CIS),which is a free association between former Soviet countriesthat promotes cooperation. The CIS facilitates trade amongmember states by reducing trade barriers and promoting a The degree of economic success varies considerably acrossthe CCA region. The average income level in CCA rose fromjust under 2% of the United States level in 1995, to 7% of theUS-level in 2023. Despite substantial income growth, noneof the countries in Central Asia have been promoted from Kazakhstan is by a substantial margin the richest country inthe CCA region. In 2023, it had an average income level ofroughly USD 10,700. Kazakhstan has the largest proven oilreserves in the Caspian Sea region and is one of the top oilproducers globally. The energy sector is a major driver of its Then there is a group of countries with income levelsvarying between USD 6,600 and USD 8,300. This groupconsists of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkmenistan.Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are the more fossil-fueloriented economies, while Georgia and Armenia are morediversified. Turkmenistan possesses the world’s seventh- The income level relative to the US has even dropped since2014, when measured at market exchange rates (figure 1).The same decline is visible when income levels would bemeasured relative to Advanced Europe. We use the GNI percapita measure (in USD, converted from local currency using Armenia and Georgia, on the other hand, are less reliant onfossil fuels and have more diversified economies, with alarger share of services compared to other countries in theregion. Armenia has a growing IT sector and is known for itsproduction of machinery, textiles, and food products. The relatively poorer countries in the CCA region areUzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The poorest of thisgroup is Tajikistan with an average income level of USD1,400, followed by Kyrgyzstan (USD 1,800) and Uzbekistan(USD 2,700). Uzbekistan’s export structure is heavilyweighted towards natural resources, including gold, cottonand natural gas. Kyrgyzstan's economy depends on purchasing power parity (PPP), which allows for differences inlocal price levels. This is a more accurate measure if the aim is tocompare the standard of living or economic well-being acrosscountries. However, since we are interested in income clear advantage over many other emerging markets.However, this already high level of education limited the remittance-dependent country in the world. Kyrgyzstan'sremittances are nearly as significant, accounting for 31% of Instead, productivity delivered the most important growthcontribution. This is seen in total factor productivity (TFP)growth, which refers to the efficiency with which factors ofproduction – capital, labour and human capital – arecombined to produce added value. Strong TFP growth in the An overview of economicgrowth in the Caucasus & At the time of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, theCCA region had caught up in terms of productivity comparedto countries at a similar income level. In the years since theGFC, GDP growth has slowed, although it is still highercompared to Central and Eastern Europe and MENA(excluding Gulf Corporation Council). The lower GDP growthis largely due to a slowdown in productivity growth, as it The growth performance of countries in the Caucasus andCentral Asia has been mixed. In the early 1990s the regionendured a recession. The goods produced by Soviet-eracapital stocks held little appeal for domestic consumers or From the second half of the 1990s up to the Global FinancialCrisis, there was a period of high GDP growth. However,compared with other emerging market regions, the drivers Transitioning to high-income status: prospects for Can countries in the C