2025年2月化工行业趋势

Solid growth rates in 2025and 2026, but loomingtrade disputes cast a Global overview imposed, and 25% tariffs on all US steel and aluminium imports.Additionally, President Trump has tasked his economic team withdevising plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes US Annual production growth of about 3% expected in 2025 and 2026 The chemical industry was amongst the worst impacted bythe energy crisis in 2022 and into 2023, as output is heavilyreliant on oil and gas feedstocks and requires energy-intensivemanufacturing processes. High inflation and tight monetarypolicies kept feedstock prices high, while also causing key buyer It is currently difficult to estimate the extent to which additionalUS tariff decisions will affect the performance of the global chemicalindustry in 2025 and 2026. Any escalation caused by massiveUS tariff increases and subsequent retaliatory measures by the However, in the course of 2024 a rebound in the US and in WesternEurope has gained momentum, supported by lower energy pricesand recovering demand from key buyer sectors and consumers. An uneven long-term outlook In the coming years Asia Pacific will continue to be the main driverof chemicals growth, followed by the US chemicals sector, whichbenefits from shale gas supply. Europe chemicals businesses willface competitive disadvantages due to structurally higher energy The potential impact of US tariffs Global trade performance and developments are very importantfor the industry as chemical products, particularly upstream basic The chemicals industry is characterised by intense competitionand ongoing market consolidation. Larger players often haveeconomies of scale and greater resources to invest in research The new US administration initiated tariffs of 25% on importsfrom Mexico and Canada, but granted both a 30-days reprieveon February 3rd. On China, additional tariffs of 10% have been Industry trendsChemicals Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Advanced materials.Sectors such as electronics, automotive andaerospace are driving increased demand for high-performance Energy prices.As an energy-intensive industry, the chemicalindustry is highly susceptible to oil and gas price volatility. Transition to sustainability.This will create challenges as wellas opportunities for the sector. Companies are facing majorinvestments in decarbonisation and optimising sustainability. Sustainability.There is a growing demand for sustainablesolutions across the industry and this provides companies withthe opportunity to gain market share. The surge in EV production Regulatory and compliance pressures.Stricter regulationsaimed at reducing environmental impact and improving safety Rising middle class in emerging markets.Rapid urbanisationand increasing household purchasing power of the middle Supply chains.The chemicals industry is highly dependent onraw materials sourced from various regions across the globe.Potential supply chain disruptions, caused by geographical AmericasChemicals outlook USA running close to capacity. Investments inUS shale gas-related projects over the pastdecade have been large, resulting in morestable gas prices, a reliable supply chainand lower cost of producing chemicalssuch as ethylene. This is helping US Good short-term prospects US chemical production increased 2.1%in 2024, and we expect solid growthrates of 3.8% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.Among subsectors, we expect basicchemicals output to increase by 6.4%,paints/varnishes to expand by 4% andsoaps/detergents to grow by 7% this Potential impact of import tariffs felt in Currently we still assume that any potentialUS tariff actions against Europe would betargeted at sectors without clear links toUS chemicals (e.g. President Trump’s mostrecent tariff announcements were focusedon metals/steel imports). The additional10% blanket tariffs on imports from Chinacould boost US domestic production ofchemicals like polypropylene and ethylene The CHIPS and Science Act and theInflation Reduction Act support theindustry. Domestically producedsemiconductors, lithium-ion batteriesand solar panels will provide demand for Additionally, US natural resources will helpto drive US chemicals growth and attractinvestment due to lower commodity Asia PacificChemicals outlook China India Robust domestic demand and government Slowdown of growth amid tariff threats After strong increases in 2023 and 2024,China´s chemical production growth isexpected to slow down to 2.2 in 2025 and3.6% in 2026. This is due to more sluggishhousehold consumption growth, lowermanufacturing activity and a markedslowdown in export growth. However, thechemicals sector is a strategic priority for The Indian chemical industry is currently thefifth largest in the world, and is expected toextend its market share, outpacing globalchemicals growth. Chemicals production isforecast to increase by 6.4% in 2025 and by10.9% in 2026. With an expanding economyand