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撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济展望-2025年4月

公用事业 2025-04-15 Atradius dede

Sub-Saharan Africa's economy is expected to stabilise in 2025 with a slight acceleration in growth to 3.8%, remaining stable at this level in 2026. Growth will be driven by investments, particularly in natural resources and infrastructure, and supported by private consumption. However, net export growth is projected to be slightly negative due to weakening global conditions.

Growth rates across the region will vary significantly. Ghana and Kenya are expected to grow faster than the regional average, while South Africa will remain the slowest-growing major economy. The key drivers for Ghana include rising oil and gold production, a strong service sector, and lower interest rates. Kenya's growth will be fueled by corporate investment, the services sector (especially transport and retail), and lower interest rates, though the agricultural sector will face challenges due to poor weather conditions. South Africa's growth, despite an acceleration, will be constrained by political uncertainty and limited investment growth.

The region faces three major uncertainties related to US policies. First, the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free access to the US market for selected Sub-Saharan countries, is uncertain. South Africa faces the highest risk of losing its AGOA status due to political issues, while other countries like Angola, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria have better chances but still face potential changes. Second, the scope and impact of US import tariffs pose risks to SSA economies, with South Africa and Angola being most vulnerable to potential reciprocal tariffs. Third, the US is expected to reduce development assistance to SSA, with Kenya being the most dependent on US aid and thus most vulnerable.

Higher long-term US interest rates, driven by inflationary pressures and market expectations, will increase borrowing costs for SSA countries seeking international financing. Nigeria and South Africa, which plan significant bond issuances, will be most affected.

In conclusion, while Sub-Saharan Africa's economy is expected to stabilise, it faces significant risks from US policies and global economic uncertainties. South Africa appears most vulnerable to these challenges, while other countries like Angola, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria have strategic importance to the US, which may provide some protection.

Variedgrowthprospectsin avolatileworld Table of Contents Executive summary Varied growth prospects in a volatile world Growth in major SSA economies set to stabiliseRather low economic growth in AngolaGhana outperforms regional peersStrong investment growth in KenyaDomestic oil refinery strengthens economy of Nigeria Volatile US trade policy raises risks to SSA outlookDuty-free access to US market under threatSSA not spared from escalating US tariffs US development assistance also at riskElevated long-term US interest rate raises costs of borrowing Executive summary Small growth acceleration in SSA region with large national differences We expect economic growth In Sub-Sahara Africa to slightly accelerate to 3.8% in 2025and remain at that level in 2026. This is over one percentage point higher than theexpected growth of the world economy. Overall, particularly investments in naturalresources and infrastructure will drive economic growth. Investments, along with private Ghana will be the fastest-growing major SSA economy Among the major SSA economies, Ghana is expected to grow the fastest in both 2025 and2026. Growth will be broadly-based with rising production of oil and gold and a goodperformance of the service sector. Meanwhile, the cocoa sector, a key pillar of the Kenya will also grow relatively quickly Kenya is another major SSA economy that is expected to grow relatively fast. Like inGhana, the services sector (particularly transport and wholesale/retail trade) is a maingrowth driver, while corporate investment also contributes strongly to economic growth. South Africa will be the slowest-growing major SSA economy South Africa remains the slowest-growing economy among the major SSA countries,despite a growth acceleration. The latter is enabled by a higher supply of electricity, which SSA region will face three new uncertainties in 2025 and 2026 With the election of Donald Trump as new US president, SSA countries face three newuncertainties. First, how will the new US government change its foreign trade policies?Second, how much development assistance with the SSA economies receive from the US inthe future? Third, in which direction will the long-term US interest rate move, in response Varied growth prospects in avolatile world Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to stabilise in the comingyears, despite elevated global uncertainty. On top of globalchallenges like volatile trade policies and aid flows, SSA isgrappling with unclear prospects for the yield on theirinternational bonds. This Economic Outlook revolves aroundthe economic growth prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in2025-2026. It opens with a discussion of the expectedeconomic growth rates of the region as a whole and fiveselected SSA economies. These selected countries – Angola,Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa – belong to the largest investments in natural resources and infrastructure across thecontinent. A stabilisation of growth is expected for 2026, Figure 1 Investments recover in SSA in 2025 Growth in major SSAeconomies set to stabilise In 2025, import growth will recover strongly, as figure 2shows, partially due to the expected growth in investments.Meanwhile, export growth will decrease somewhat, resulting Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will accelerateagain only slightly in 2025. Where the region recorded agrowth rate of 3.3% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024, the expectedgrowth rate for 2025 and 2026 is 3.8%. SSA continues to grow In 2025 and 2026, the differences among SSA countriesremain large when it comes to economic growth. Among thefive selected countries (see table 1; to be discussed in moredetail below), only Ghana and Kenya will grow faster than the Rather low economic growth in Angola Economic growth in Angolais expected to slow down to 2.9%in 2025, followed by a small recovery to 3.2% in 2026. Theslowdown in 2025 is due to a lower, yet still positive growth ofthe oil production. The production increase as a result of the The acceleration of economic growth in SSA in 2025 is largelyrelated to a recovery in investments. This is due to new fuel private consumption growth (see figure 3). Moreover, theUS Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects theaverage oil price to decrease by 9% to USD 74 in 2025. SinceAngola is a large net oil exporter (see also the forthcoming for a strong easing of monetary policy (central bank policy ratewas 27% early March 2025). The resulting lower interest rateswill have a positive effect on private consumption (the maingrowth driver) and investments (see figure 4). Meanwhile, Another factor that will constrain Angola’s growth in 2025 willbe the restrictive fiscal policy. This is related to high externaldebt-service payments. These payments made thegovernment decide to partially postpone the payment ofwages of civil servants with two months, following a pay raisefor all civil servants at the start of 2025. Another growth-slowing factor will be the drought i

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