2021年 10 月一一个个星星球球，，两两个个世世界界，，三三大大现现实实地区经济展望撒哈拉以南非洲国 际 货 币 基 金 组 织 世 界 经 济 与 金 融 概 览地区经济展望2021年10月国 际 货 币 基 金 组 织撒哈拉以南非洲一个星球，两个世界，三大现实 国际货币基金组织 | 2021年10月ii©2021 Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund, publisher.Title: Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa : one planet, two worlds, three stories.Other titles: Sub-Saharan Africa : one planet, two worlds, three stories. | World economic and financial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2021. | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440 | Oct. 2021. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN 9781513592701（中文纸质版） 9781557752475（中文eP ub) 9781557752529（中文网络版PDF）Subjects: LCSH: Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic conditions. | Economic forecasting—Africa, Sub-Saharan. | Economic development—Africa, Sub-Saharan. | Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic policy.Classification: LCC HC800.R445 2021《地区经济展望：撒哈拉以南非洲》每年发布两次，分别在春季和秋季出版，探讨撒哈拉以南非洲地区的发展情况。预测和政策考虑因素仅代表国际货币基金组织工作人员的观点，不一定代表国际货币基金组织、其执行执董会或管理层的观点。可通过网络、传真或来函方式订购出版物：International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (USA)电话： (202) 623-7430 传真： (202) 623-7201 电子邮件： publications@imf.orgwww.imf.orgwww.elibrary.imf.org请浏览所有已发布的《地区经济展望：撒哈拉以南非洲》： https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA 国际货币基金组织 | 2021年10月iii目录致谢 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � v概要 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � vii一个星球，两个世界，三大现实 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1复苏进程令人担忧 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �1不确定性加剧 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �4一个星球 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �5两个世界 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �5三大现实 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �6前进之路：在不断变化的世界中确保非洲地区拥有一席之地 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �13统计附录 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 22专栏专栏1. 撒哈拉以南非洲地区的（食品）通胀 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �17专栏2. 特别提款权分配：为撒哈拉以南非洲地区注入一剂强心针 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �18专栏3. 碳定价：对撒哈拉以南非洲的影响 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �19专栏4. 撒哈拉以南非洲地区的新冠疫苗交付和普及 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �20专栏5. IMF在撒哈拉以南非洲地区的重点工作 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �21图图1. 撒哈拉以南非洲：新增确诊新冠病例 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �1图2. 撒哈拉以南非洲：防疫措施和活动，2021-2021年 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �1图3. 撒哈拉以南非洲：实际GDP季度同比滚动增长率，数据和即时预测 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �2图4. 撒哈拉以南非洲：贸易条件 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �2图5. 新兴市场债券指数利差 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �3图6� 撒哈拉以南非洲：各类资金流入 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �3图7. 2021年4月以来的实际GDP增长率调整 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �3图8. 新冠疫苗的不平等问题 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �4图9. 部分经济体：实际人均GDP，2019-2024年 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �6图10. 撒哈拉以南非洲：平均财政余额和公共债务，2019-2024年 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �6图11. 部分经济体：经常账户差额，2019-2025年 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �7图12. 撒哈拉以南非洲：人均实际GDP，2019-2024年 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �7图13. 撒哈拉以南非洲：实