2025年5月汽车行业趋势

US tariffs trigger acontraction of globalautomotive production Global overview and increase inflation through higher prices. In many countriesweaker consumer confidence will affect demand for big-ticket items Disruption of supply chains and rising costs due to tariffs We expect global motor vehicles and parts production tocontract by 1.7% in 2025 and by 2.1% in 2026 as US tariffs hit thesector. Compared to the March 2025 baseline, global automotivewill see 5.9 percentage points lower output growth in 2025-2026. Despite some respite announced by the White House at Among regions, the slowdown is largest in North America (see chartoverleaf). Mexican and Canadian imports represent 15% and 8%of US vehicles sales respectively, meaning the scope for averagevehicle price increases is significant. Currently, components crossthe borders between the US, Mexico and Canada several times in The consequences will be negative for producers and suppliers inthe US and elsewhere. In 2024, Japan, South Korea and Germanywere the top automotive suppliers to the US after Mexicoand Canada in terms of finished vehicles and parts. Original Despite some issues, the long-term outlook for EV sales is still good Currently electric vehicle (EV) sales are facing headwinds in theUS. The government is expected to roll back the EV tax creditsintroduced under the Inflation Reduction Act, reducing salesincentives. That said, we expect global hybrid and EV sales to accountfor 59% of global light vehicle sales by 2030, up from 10% in 2020.In Europe the shift towards electrification will accelerate in the coming In addition to the targeted automotive tariffs, the current UStrade policy will lead to a global economic slowdown, despitethe recent withdrawal of some levies. Tariffs and the associated Industry trendsAutomotive Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Emerging markets.Low vehicle density and a growing middle-class in emerging markets is driving demand, especially in Asia. Geopolitical risks.The sector relies on a global network ofsuppliers and is vulnerable to protectionism, tariffs and Green transport.New model launches and ranges, decreasingprices, purchase incentives and CO2 reduction policies will drive Advanced market demographics.High vehicle density and agingpopulations imply a decrease in future demand. New players.Tech companies and start-ups are disrupting theEV market, creating new competitors for traditional automotive New technologies.McKinsey predicts the autonomous drivingcar market could reach sales of USD 400 billion by 2035. Supplier obsolescence.Manufacturers of combustion enginevehicle parts will need to change or face extinction. AmericasAutomotive outlook USA Several foreign automakers haveannounced formal plans to invest in USproduction. Such large package investmentsare typically planned several years inadvance and are supported by a stable Decreasing production and priceincreases and due to tariffs While 25% tariff on all imported vehiclesand parts will likely have the effect ofreshoring some automotive productionto the US, it will also raise the cost to USmanufacturers and households. Thiswill happen despite some respite to theindustry sector announced at the end of Canada and Mexico A steep automotive production decline One of the world’s most interconnectedautomotive supply chains is that of Canadaand Mexico with the US, which benefitsfrom over three decades of NAFTA/USMCAintegration. In 2024, about 2.7 millionvehicles, or nearly two-thirds of all vehicles Currently we expect US vehicle productionto contract by 5.0% in 2025. The USautomotive sector depends on regionallyand globally integrated supply chains,with many components crossingmultiple borders before final assembly. The introduction of US import tariffs andregulatory barriers will raise productioncosts, lengthen supply timelines, and reduceoutput and demand. Vehicles and partsfrom Canada and Mexico that are compliantwith the USMCA trade agreement (75% of allparts in the finished vehicle must originatefrom the region) will only be tariffed ontheir non-US content. However, it will taketime for the US government to establish On average, the tariff applies to nearlyone third of the price of a car. Increasedcomponent prices will raise the cost ofproduction per vehicle and will likely bepassed onto consumers. US OEMs arealso likely to raise prices in the face ofreduced foreign competition. The priceincreases will weigh on demand for bothimported and domestically produced Asia PacificAutomotive outlook order to win more market share. A lot ofsmaller private-owned businesses in theEV segment are not yet breaking evendue to high input costs and are heavilyreliant on external funding by investors. A slowdown in 2025 after robust growth in After robust growth in 2023 and 2024,we expect Chinese automotive productiongrowth to slow down in 2025. Whileautomotive production and sales increasedby 14.5% and 11.2% in