经济展望-2025年7月

Trade war Table of Contents Summary 1.Global macroeconomic environment 1.1An unprecedented policy shock1.2Financial market turbulence imposes discipline1.3Global GDP forecast dragged down by the US1.4A self-inflicted wound1.5Trade war assumptions1.6Trade shifts1.7Commodity prices take a hit1.8No worries about inflation revival1.9Monetary policy difference unsustainable1.10Public finance concerns worsen 2.Advanced economies 2.1Trade war drags down growth prospects for advanced economies2.2Eurozone: subdued growth2.3Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty downgrade US outlook2.4Canada facing recession induced by trade war2.5United Kingdom: trade deals not enough to boost short-term growth2.6Japan: trade challenges add to domestic woes3.Emerging markets economies 3.1Global uncertainty undermines EMEs’ growth prospects3.2China facing headwinds over trade war3.3India close to signing an interim trade deal with the US3.4Mexico facing trade war-induced recession3.5Brazil: less exposure to US but still losing steam3.6Türkiye: economy continues to lose steam3.7Russia: high inflation weighs on consumption growth Summary Global growth is expected to remain subdued at 2.4% in both 2025 and 2026, representing adownward growth revision for all major markets. In the first few months of the new USadministration, trade tariffs followed each other in rapid succession, with ‘Liberation Day’ on The inflationary impact of trade tariffs has been limited so far, even for the United States.According to textbookanalysis, trade tariffs drive up inflation for the country that implements them, through higher import prices that willeventually be passed on to consumers. However, the impact thus far has been limited for several reasons, includingthat the current US tariff structure is still limited in size and scope. Another reason is that trade tariffs weigh on We predict that trade growth will slow significantly this year, to around 1%, as a result of the tariff escalation andpolicy uncertainty.Although global trade still showed robust growth in Q1 of 2025 as a result of the frontloading ofexport orders, we expect a contraction in the remainder of this year. Trade growth will be particularly weak in the Advanced economies are expected to grow at a meagre pace of 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026.This is a downwardrevision from our earlier estimate, especially for 2026, because we no longer expect a significant recovery in the US.Volatile trade and domestic policies have undermined confidence in the US economy, leading to significant revisionsfor both 2025 and 2026. The eurozone economy faces relatively minor downward growth revisions due to the tariff The outlook for emerging market economies (EMEs) is on average stronger than that for advanced economies, but itremains weak by historical standards.We expect 3.8% growth across EMEs in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. Many EMEs,especially those with close trade relations with the US, such as Mexico and China, are directly exposed to US trade A re-escalation of the trade war to levels similar to April would bring the global economy nearly to a standstill in2026.The economic forecasts presented in this Outlook assume a limited trade war between the US and othercountries. We also considered a downside scenario where the US increases tariffs further, triggering greaterretaliation from trading partners and significant supply-chain disruptions. In this scenario of trade war escalation, the 1.2Financial marketturbulence imposes 1.1An unprecedented Dubbed “Liberation Day” by the US president, 2 April 2025was the day the US was to unshackle the fetters from othernations, friends as well as foes. This was to put a stop to whatwas said to be ripping off the United States. Indeed, Executive The above US policy rollercoaster has obviously not left theworld, let alone the US economy, untouched. Let us take stock True, the effective tariff of imports into the US has swung upfrom 2.5% to 17.8%.2,3That has had a major impact on the economy in the US and globally, which we will explain below.The effect is negative, no doubt. Arguably more important atthis stage is the uncertainty about US trade policy, which is Initially, the tariffs were no idle threat. For 57 countries, Trumpannounced a minimum rate of 10% on exports to the US,effective 5 April. China was hit by 125%, other Asian countriessuch as Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia by 36%, 46% and49% respectively. The European Union faced 20%. Even Mexico The announcements prompted retaliation from tradingpartners and a triggered a stock market crash. GDP growthforecasts were quickly adjusted significantly downward andthe OECD and even the Federal Reserve (Fed) warned of arecession. The situation proved to be unsustainable. On 9 This uncertainty, concerning change for better or worse intrade policy that could happening at any moment, means thatfirms and households become very reluctant to spend. Thishas a negative effect on investments and consumption