拉丁美洲和加勒比地区经济展望-2025年7月

Growing resiliencetested by US policy Table of Contents Summary Growing resilience tested by US policy shifts Tariffs, trade and turbulenceSouth America: subdued momentum shaped by Argentina and BrazilArgentina: bouncing back, yet fragileBrazil: limited US ties but still losing steamChile: steady growth, copper tariffs limited impact Mexico facing trade war-induced recessionCentral America: Moderate outlook, manageable US policy impactCosta Rica: US policy shifts undermine trade and investment outlook Caribbean stands out in terms of both growth and vulnerability10Dominican Republic’s relative diversification mitigates external risks11 Summary Subdued growth outlook shaped by largest economies We project economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to rise from 1.7% in2024 to 2.1% in 2025, then ease to 1.8% in 2026, keeping it the slowest-growing emergingmarket region. Growth is shaped by divergent dynamics in the region’s three largesteconomies: Argentina (rebounding from recession), Brazil (dragged by high interest rates US policy changes are creating significant external pressure for region LAC is highly exposed to US policy changes due to its geographic proximity and economicintegration. Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean are most exposed, given theirstrong ties to the US through trade, investment, remittances, and financial linkages. SouthAmerica is more insulated due to more diversified trade partners and less openeconomies. However, also this commodity rich subregion is not immune to broader But stronger domestic policy records support broader resilience These external pressures will test LAC’s improved resilience underpinned by strongerpolicy frameworks, independent central banks, flexible exchange rates and higher official Growing resilience tested byUS policy shifts Tariffs, trade and turbulence Figure 2 Mexico and Central America most exposed to We project economic growth in Latin America and theCaribbean (LAC) to rise from 1.7% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 andto ease to 1.8% in 2026, keeping LAC the slowest-growingemerging market region (see figure 1). This subdued outlookmainly reflects divergent dynamics in the region’s threelargest economies: Argentina’s rebound from recession,Brazil’s drag from high interest rates and political uncertainty, Figure 1 LAC continues to lag EMEs The effects of changing US policy are especially pronounced inMexico, Central America, and the Caribbean (see figure 2),given their deep economic ties with the US through trade,investment, remittances, and financial linkages. Moreover,broader spillovers such as heightened global policyuncertainty, persistently high US interest rates, weaker oil While the LAC region has strong trade ties with the US,average US import tariffs on the region are still moderate at8.8% (see figure 3). This is because most LAC nations importmore from the US than they export. All countries face the 10%blanket tariff imposed by President Trump in early April, butmost have avoided the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, paused until August,targeting trade surplus countries. Only Guyana, Nicaragua, and In early July, Trump threatened to (re-)impose reciprocaltariffs on trade partners that have yet to reach a deal with theUS. The LAC region is relatively insulated from this, but it is exposed to a slew of sector- and country-specific tariffs thathave also been threatened to start in August. This is especiallythe case for South America and Mexico. For instance, Trumpthreatened in early July to impose a 50% tariff on copper(previously exempt) starting August 1. This potentially raisesthe effective rates for major copper exporters like Chile (from5.0% to 23.7%) and Peru (from 7.5% to 12.3%). Further Despite these challenges, most countries in the region remainwell-equipped to navigate the more demanding externalenvironment. Strengthened policy frameworks, independentcentral banks, flexible exchange rate regimes, and increasedofficial reserves have significantly bolstered resilience across If all announced measures take effect on August 1, the LACregion’s average tariff rate would rise significantly to 13.7%(see figure 3). This would keep the ETR applied to LAC on thelower end of EMEs. For Brazil and Chile though, this wouldmean a significant jump in ETRs to the highest in the region. Itwould bring them both above Mexico, the country with thelargest trade surplus with the US. Brazil’s ETR would even be Figure 3 LAC tariffs moderate compared to other EME Figure 5 Downward revision to LAC outlook below South America: subduedmomentum shaped by August 1, citing political persecution of his ally, formerpresident Bolsonaro, over an alleged coup attempt after the2022 election. The announcement triggered a 3% depreciationof the real against the USD, though it's still up 11% year-to- The economic outlook for South America remains subdued,shaped largely by developments in the subregion’s two largesteconomies—Brazil and Argentina. Grow