2025年中国个人奢侈品市场
Recalibration, resurgence, and more selectiveconsumers are edging China’s personal luxurymarket toward recovery. Authors and acknowledgments Bruno Lannesis a senior partner in Bain & Company’s Consumer Products and Retail practices forGreater China, located in Shanghai. He can be contacted atbruno.lannes@bain.com. Priscilla Dell’Ortois a partner in Bain & Company’s Consumer Products and Retail practices forGreater China, located in Hong Kong. She can be contacted atpriscilla.dell’orto@bain.com. Elle Yangis a partner in Bain & Company’s Consumer Products and Retail practices for GreaterChina and Japan, located in Tokyo. She can be contacted atelle.yang@bain.com. The authors would like to express their gratitude to Xiaowen Zhang, an associate consultant in Bain’sShanghai office. This work is based on secondary market research, analysis of financial information available or provided to Bain & Company and a range ofinterviews with industry participants. Bain & Company has not independently verified any such information provided or available to Bainand makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. Projected market and financialinformation, analyses and conclusions contained herein are based on the information described above and on Bain & Company’s judgment,and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. The information and analysis herein doesnot constitute advice of any kind, is not intended to be used for investment purposes, and neither Bain & Company nor any of its subsidiariesor their respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees or agents accept any responsibility or liability with respect to the use ofor reliance on any information or analysis contained in this document. This work is copyright Bain & Company and may not be published,transmitted, broadcast, copied, reproduced or reprinted in whole or in part without the explicit written permission of Bain & Company. The 2025 Luxury Goods Market: Recalibration, Resurgence, and More Selective Consumers At a Glance In 2025, the mainland Chinese personal luxury market contracted 3%–5% but showed signsof recovery, starting in Q3. `Category performance was mixed. Beauty rebounded, while other categories, such as watches,continued to struggle, and fashion outperformed leather goods and bags. `Overseas luxury spending declined sharply. Weak currency and narrowing price gaps betweenmainland China and key luxury markets curbed demand for spending abroad. Daigou salesincreased slightly but were restrained by brand-protection measures. `Domestic brands captured more share by appealing to cultural connections and localpreferences. Although it is a small portion of the total luxury market, the secondhand market showed stronggrowth (15%–20%). Livestreaming played a key role in the market’s expansion. `More cautious and knowledgeable consumers are driving a transition to a slow growth pattern.Signs of continued recovery are expected in 2026, and the potential for long-term recoveryremains great as overall domestic consumption improves. In 2025, the Chinese luxury market continued to recalibrate, starting a gradual recovery as consumerconfidence remained cautious. Discretionary spending was still restrained as consumers became moreselective and prioritized value-driven luxury items that balanced quality, exclusivity, and practicality. Thetrend toward experience-based consumption—including travel and wellness purchases—held steady,reflecting an ongoing preference for emotional and sensory experiences over material goods. In general, brands catering to affordable luxury and ultra-premium segments emerged as winners,delivering perceived “true value.” These brands demonstrated strong connections with affluent youngconsumers or ultra-wealthy individuals. In contrast to 2024, the share of overseas spending declined in 2025. A weaker renminbi narrowed cross-market price gaps, diminishing the appeal of international shopping. In addition, ongoing shopping mallpromotions and the expansion of domestic tourism boosted consumption repatriation. As a result of these multiple trends, the mainland Chinese personal luxury market experienced a moremoderate decline of 3%–5%, after a steep decline of 17%–19% in 2024 (see Figure 1). The 2025 Luxury Goods Market: Recalibration, Resurgence, and More Selective Consumers Mainland China personal luxury market(RMB billion) Quarter-by-quarter performance The slowdown persisted through the first half of the year, though the market saw a modest SpringFestival boost. Sequential declines persisted through June. However, a recovery started to emerge in the third quarter. Recovery in the second half was supportedby favorable base effects (second half of 2025 vs. second half of 2024), a robust stock market and aresurgence in consumer confidence. The trajectory of the recovery was confirmed in the fourth quarter, p
