从PE视角看伊朗战争

INDUSTRY RESEARCHThe Iran War Viewed Institutional Research Group Through a PE Lens Jim CorridoreLead Research Analyst,Industrialsjim.corridore@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com How the Iran war affects aerospace & defense PE Published on March 6, 2026 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Contents Key takeaways1The Iran war explained1How PE investors view the Iran war2Who makes these munitions and at what cost?3How can PE invest in this space?5The Iran war highlights aerospace & defenseinvestment staying power6 Key takeaways •The Iran war that began on February 28, 2026, has led to the sustained use ofballistic missiles, drones, and precision munitions, placing significant demand onUS air and missile defense systems. •Interceptors such as PAC-3 MSE, THAAD, and Standard Missile-3 cost severalmillion to tens of millions of dollars per unit, meaning replenishment can quicklyreach into the billions if usage remains high. •The key constraint is industrial capacity. Prime contractors depend on smallersuppliers for propulsion, guidance systems, electronics, and materials, and thosesuppliers determine how fast production can increase. •Inventory drawdowns typically result in supplemental appropriations and multiyearprocurement commitments, providing longer-term revenue visibility across thesupply chain. •The most attractive PE opportunities are in the sub-tier ecosystem, includingpropulsion components, guidance electronics, composite structures, dronesubsystems, and maintenance and sustainment providers tied to higherproduction levels. The Iran war explained The current round of US military action against Iran began in the early morninghours of February 28, 2026. At approximately 1:15 a.m. EST, US Central Command,the unified military command responsible for the Middle East, announced the startof Operation Epic Fury. According to public statements, the opening wave targetedIranian command-and-control infrastructure, air defense systems, missile launch sites,and facilities associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The objectivewas to degrade Iran’s ability to coordinate and execute missile and drone attacksacross the region. In the days since the initial strikes, the conflict has expanded in both tempo andgeography. Iran has responded with waves of ballistic missiles and one-way attackdrones aimed at US positions and regional partners. The US and its allies haveintercepted large numbers of these incoming threats using layered air and missiledefense systems. Naval engagements have also occurred, including submarineand surface warfare activity, underscoring that this is not a single-night strike but asustained exchange across air, land, and sea domains. For additional analysis on theIran war’s effect on oil & gas investment, read our latestanalyst note. For investors, andparticularly for privateequity investors, thesignificance of this conflictlies less in the politicalcontext and more in whatit reveals about weaponsconsumption, inventorydepth, and industrialcapacity. How PE investors view the Iran war For investors, and particularly for private equity investors, the significance of thisconflict lies less in the political context and more in what it reveals about weaponsconsumption, inventory depth, and industrial capacity. Modern warfare consumesprecision munitions and defensive interceptors at a rate that few peacetimeproduction lines are designed to sustain. When stockpiles are drawn down quickly,replenishment becomes a multiyear procurement story. That is where capital canfind opportunities. PE investors do not typically acquire the large publicly traded prime contractors suchas Lockheed Martin, RTX Corporation, or Boeing. Instead, PE firms tend to invest inthe tiered supply chain that supports those primes. A typical missile or interceptorcontains propulsion systems, guidance electronics, seekers, sensors, compositestructures, connectors, and highly specialized test equipment. These componentsare often produced by midsized companies with deep technical expertise and long-standing government relationships. When demand surges, the primes cannot increaseoutput without these suppliers increasing output first. The Iran war has placed particular emphasis on air and missile defense systems. Iran’sstrategy has involved launching ballistic missiles and drones in volume. A ballisticmissile is a rocket-propelled weapon that follows a high-arching trajectory throughthe atmosphere before descending at high speed toward its target. Intercepting suchmissiles requires advanced defensive systems capable of tracking and destroying theincoming threat in flight. The Iran war has placedparticular emphasis onair and missile defensesystems. Iran’s strategyhas involved launchingballistic missiles anddrones in volume. One of the principal US systems used in thi