美股展望：更新投资建议

Updating our US eguity outlook and investment recommendations ninldengthe historical average equity market path following geopofftical risk events. Our baseline expectationis Thebaseline outlookforUS equities remains constrthat the market wlleventuallyresume its upard dimb, continuing that historical pattern, However, theoutlook now embeds hlsher oll prices, weaker US GDP growth, and later Fed easing than we and theiously expected, While the distribution of potential outcomes is wide, the macro headwinds itgenerally appear priced, the fundamental engine of earnings prowth continues tonpea pue'unlevated relative tohistory this vear, In addition, S&P 500 EPS in 2025 realized S275, modesty abovor 129% EPSance of the hyperscalersBy the end of 2026, tiegreater claritysurronding thewar and they of theFed ding the impact of Al willikely remain, maintaining pressurefrom 22x previously. As a result, despite the increase-end S&P 500 target of 7600.Equity ivestorsface a positioning challenge as well as a fundamental one, At O.O, our Sentimen ure that is neutral, although signs of hedging are evident, Howevee market. During the past few weeks, our Hede Fund ViP basket pair has declined EIvolatilityin the MomentumfactorTheunfa rowth shock scenario, wer and a P/E multiple ofity market decline matching the nere oll supply shocks in recent cainty cut short the cyclical ecor Vew al 23 exhit: ound in cyclical equlties, the window of opportunilty for cyclical tradeBen Srls: Us teultyVensrowth profles and'quality'attributes.Our cand the Materials and Health Care sectors. The beneficiaries of Al investment spendingity in the Alplex, although crovxding is a risk, and the end of thccydical trade is one of three key catahsts we have highlighted for the hyperscalers to regain mor Tags Parfoto Strateay Rrsear.Eqity Bekets Welilt EarinsEang hevew Cl CeopekeArifcalneligre Miro Egitis VWew al taps Updating our US equity outlook and investment recommendations narkably resilient despitepoliticalughiy in line with the :e path followades, Coiversations with investors have indicated a marked recent increase in uncconflict and its inplication for equity markets, Noneam. Thisis also our base case ents has been wide, and limited geopolitical visibllity today Explorechanges inthisforExplore: MORE PORTFOLIO STRATEGYRESEARC US Equl ning has boo weaker GDPgrowth, higherinflationand later Fed easing than our economists had previouslyfrom 2.5% to 2.2%. Our economistthan Jun d by a decline in shoran outlook for roughly 1.5% GDP ing, The net effect of higher oll prices on S&P 500 EPS is roughlr 1/3 of 5&P 500 EPSgrowth this year, In addlition, with 4Q2025lightly above our estimates. As a result, we maintain our basevised 2026 forecast is similar toegist but below the bottom-up consensus. Our 2027 EPS estimate is also below npact of Al will likehy remain, maintaining pressure on valuationthe Rradual pace of Al adoption, uncertainty surrounding the long-term benefits of andresolved, continuing to weigh on valuations. Adjusting for greatesnd5&P500 P/Emultiple of 21x on consensus forward EP5, down from22x eatea distribution of outcomes for the market with an unfavorableskew to the downslde, mplied volatilityons and index volatility will likely rise further ind lncyclicals,butsuchanoutcomeisnotourbasecase gcreateamorechallenging emvnentfor"lowquality"stockscapital that havein 2H 2025 and early 2026usual to rely on onkSMIDcaps,weinue to prefer the profitable and relatively inexpensive S&P Mid-cap 400 andr the Russell 2000. Solar energy stocks, cybersecurity stocks, and constituents of ourrebalanced Strong and Weak Balance Sheet baskets ion. For Reg ACw.gs.com/research/hedge.htm AllTags Bensir LSeatyew Parfotstatesr rear Eeat, as Wary Ermir EaringFrahw @Geopoltis Artficalinteligexe Maro Ceuities UntedStates Ameias Cauitylndesforecat Chs.