月度策略报告：成本向下传导受阻 节后复工延缓

2026年3月12日 成本向下传导受阻节后复工延缓 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543 宏源期货研究所TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com ➢后市展望： PX方面，市场交易集中检修季。月底美国突袭伊朗，中东地缘局势剧烈动荡。霍尔木兹海峡关闭，令亚洲炼厂原料短缺预期大幅提升，尽管短期内依靠前期储备维持生产，不过国内外工厂陆续保护性降负，PX供应减量预期进一步加深。PX在中期主要交易供应减量是确定性的，地缘冲突和二季度集中检修都导致的是供应减量，所以交易逻辑没有本质变化，只是诱发因素不同。后续的上行空间取决于冲突的走向，如果炼厂大面积的降负减产，那空间可观；如果霍尔木兹海峡恢复通行，则价格将有回落，届时需求的负反馈也将发挥作用。 PTA方面，背靠成本强势抬升。PTA加工费已有明显修复，当前高加工费下已经吸引装置加快复工，今年开年累库幅度较大，但聚酯又执行减产，所以中期如果没有检修计划，库存的压制会愈发明显。PTA虽然没有受到直接的供需冲击，若后续PX紧缺将限制PTA的开工，或将缓解PTA的累库情况。另外，中东地区是我国PTA出口的重要目的地，出口贸易伙伴中埃及位列第二、阿曼位列第三、沙特位列第八，若物流受阻，则中期的出口节奏将被打乱。 MEG方面，有望连续去库。通过霍尔木兹海峡进口到中国的乙二醇占进口量的50%，所以冲突的直接影响是伊朗装置停车多久，间接影响是沙特货源的运输如何解决。如果战争持续4周以上，那去库幅度将更大，有望迎来宏观和基本面的共振（供减需增）。基本面风险点在于检修计划能否兑现及下游旺季到来需求的回升速度。 风险提示：霍尔木兹海峡通行快速恢复，纺服需求旺季表现不佳 目录 （一）行情回顾：资金热度退却后的调整...........................................................................................................................5（二）开工并未见颓势...........................................................................................................................................................6（三）效益维持稳定，占据产业链优势地位......................................................................................................................10（四）库存缓慢累积.............................................................................................................................................................10 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）行情回顾：春节开门红转瞬即逝.............................................................................................................................11（二）加工费守得云开见月明.............................................................................................................................................11（三）PTA春节累库超预期.................................................................................................................................................14（四）出口同比未改下跌趋势.............................................................................................................................................14 （一）行情回顾：情绪退潮后，价格重回低位..................................................................................................................15（二）供应压力并未缓解.....................................................................................................................................................15（三）春节港口持续累库.....................................................................................................................................................16（四）中东地区货源将在二季度减少.................................................................................................................................17 （一）行情回顾：成本压力向下传导困难.........................................................................................................................18（二）坚定执行联合减产.....................................................................................................................................................18（三）假期影响，产销清淡.................................................................................................................................................19（四）聚酯出口全年表现良好.............................................................................................................................................22 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................23 （一）终端承接受阻，复工节奏错配.................................................................................................................................23（二）海外需求不足.............................................................................................................................................................24 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）·····················································································································································6图8：PX月度产量（千吨）·························