石油市场报告-2026年3月

12 March 2026 •The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oilmarket. With crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 mb/dbefore the war to a trickle currently, limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway, andstorage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of arapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase. •Global oil supply is projected to plunge by 8 mb/d in March, with curtailments in the Middle East partlyoffset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan and Russia following disruptions atthe start of the year. While the extent of losses will depend on the duration of the conflictand-disruptions to flows, we estimate global oil supply to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 on average, withnon-OPEC+ producers accounting for the entire increase. •The conflict is also having a significant impact on global product markets, with export flows throughthe Strait at a near standstill. Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d ofLPG in 2025. More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut due to attacks anda lack of viable export outlets. Runs elsewhere will be increasingly limited due to feedstockavailability. •IEA member countries unanimously agreed on 11 March to make 400 mb of oil from their emergencyreserves available to the market to address disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East.Global observed oil stocks were 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. TheOECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, oil on water 25%, with the remainder in othernon-OECD countries. •Widespread flight cancellations in the Middle East and large-scale disruptions to LPG supplies areexpected to curb global oil demand by around 1 mb/d during March and April compared to previousestimates. Higher oil prices and a more precarious outlook for the global economy pose further risksto the forecast. Global oil consumption is now set to increase by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 – down210 kb/d from last month. •Oil prices have gyrated wildly since the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on28 February. Disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies due to attacks on the region’s oil infrastructureand the cessation of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent futures soaring, tradingwithin a whisker of $120/bbl. Prices subsequently eased with Brent around $92/bbl at the time ofwriting – up $20/bbl for the month. Tables of contents Dire Straits ................................................................................................................................ 3Demand...................................................................................................................................... 6Overview ................................................................................................................................. 6Middle Eastern Air Traffic Upheaval Weighs on Jet/Kerosene Demand ................................ 7OECD ...................................................................................................................................... 8Trade Dislocations Upending Global Petrochemical Markets............................................... 11Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................ 13Supply...................................................................................................................................... 17Overview ............................................................................................................................... 17Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Pathways to Restart and Implications for Supply .................... 19OPEC+ crude supply ............................................................................................................ 21Russia’s Total Export Revenues Plunge to Fresh Low in February ..................................... 25Non-OPEC+ .......................................................................................................................... 27Limited upside to Output from Producers Outside of the Middle East in 2026 ..................... 27Refining ................................................................................................................................... 31Overview ............................................................................................................................... 31Regional refining developments ........................................................................................... 32Middle East Product Exports: The Cornerstone of Product Supplies for so Many ............... 32Product cracks and refinery margins .......................................................................