马耳他的增长面临风险：探索宏观金融因素对增长的影响

Malta’s Growth-at-Risk:Exploring the Effects ofMacro-Financial Factors Fuad Hasanov SIP/2026/022 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2026MAR IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean Department Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro-Financial Factors on GrowthPrepared by Fuad Hasanov* Authorized for distribution by Nick Gigineishvili IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:This paper employs a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess the impact of macro-financialvariables on the growth rate distribution of Malta over a one-to-two-year horizon. The analysis suggests thatwhile the baseline outlook is positive, large tail risks are associated with the domestic risk factors related to RECOMMENDED CITATION:Hasanov, Fuad, 2026, “Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro- SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploringthe Effects of Macro-Financial Prepared by Fuad Hasanov GROWTH-AT-RISK: EXPLORING THE EFFECTS OF This paper employs a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess the impact of macro-financialvariables on the growth rate distribution over a one-to-two-year horizon. The analysis suggests thatwhile the baseline outlook is positive, large tail risks are associated with the domestic risk factors A.Introduction 1.A Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework is helpful to analyze the vulnerability of Malta'seconomic growth to financial and macroeconomic shocks. Traditional macroeconomic forecaststypically provide a "point estimate," a single number (or path of single numbers) predicting the mostlikely outcome for GDP growth (the baseline projection). These point forecasts often fail to captureuncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly "tail risks" that arise during periods offinancial stress or external shocks. GaR addresses this limitation by linking current financial andeconomic conditions to a probability distribution of future real GDP growth. In addition, the B.Strong Growth in Credit and Housing Markets 2.Malta’s economy has been one of the fastest growing in Europe over the past decade. Real GDP growth averaged close to 7 percent per year from 2013 to 2019 and remained above5 percent in 2020-2024, propelled by labor-intensive services sectors like tourism, gaming, andprofessional services, alongside a strong influx of foreign workers that expanded capacity. Growth in 3.Malta is a highly open economy, making it sensitive to external macroeconomicfactors.With total exports of goods and services at about 120 percent of GDP and service exports (tourism, remote gaming, finance, etc.) dominating trade, Malta’s economy is sensitive to Europeanand global economic conditions. Risks include a sharp Euro Area slowdown, which would affecttourism and business services demand, and global financial market volatility such as a sudden risk-off event causing a Euro-wide credit crunch. Additionally, higher energy prices or geopolitical 4.Economic activity is further underpinned by an expanding credit market.Householdcredit is experiencing stronger growth compared to credit to non-financial corporations (NFCs).Bank lending is increasingly concentrated in mortgages and construction loans, which at end-2024 (mortgage interest rates of around 3 percent) and steady house price appreciation. Household debt 5.Credit expansion has boosted domestic demand but also led to higher vulnerability. High exposure of banks and households to the property market suggests that adverse shocks tohouse prices or interest rates could weaken balance sheets and reduce spending, lowering growth 6.Malta’s housing prices have seen a sustained increase.Drivers of the housing boominclude robust income growth, population growth (Malta’s population rose by 25 percent over adecade, largely due to immigration), and low interest rates. Residential property prices rose by 6.7percent in 2024 and cooled slightly in early 2025. The price-to-income ratio has stabilized at about90 percent since the early 2020s after climbing in the late 2010s. The price-to-rent ratio is elevated 7.Domestic financial conditions in Malta remained accommodative through 2024-25. Mortgage interest rates remain relatively low, liquidity is ample, and sovereign bond yields for Maltahave stayed moderate. Public debt at about 47 percent of GDP and an A+ sovereign rating havekept borrowing costs contained. The Central Bank’s stress tests indicate that banks are resilient withstrong capital (Tier 1 ratio of 21 percent) and liquidity (LCR more than 350 percent) buffers. Localmarkets show no signs of financial stress, such as sudden jumps in spreads or funding pressures.However, Maltese financial conditions are correlated with euro-area condit