2024-2025年旱季：预示着马什雷克地区的新常态

E/ESCWA/CL1.CCS/2026/Policy brief.1 Key messages 2025 is an exceptionally dry hydrological yearacross the Mashreq:1the 2024/2025 winterseason brought severe rainfall deficits acrossthe Mashreq, with Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and theSyrian Arab Republic receiving less than half of Agriculture, food security and water supplysystems are under acute stressowing to lower-than-normal precipitation, conflict, delayed Drought governance remains largely reactive:while countries have issued advisories,rationing schedules and emergency agriculturaldirectives, few have fully operationalizedintegrated drought management systems that Climate change is amplifying drought risk: analysis using regional climate models revealsdrought frequency, duration and severityare increasing compared with a decade ago,particularly near the Eastern Mediterranean. Opportunity:regional cooperation on climate-resilient water management,drought-smart agriculture practices, shared hydro-climate data andadaptive transboundary allocation frameworks can substantially reduce Introduction The Mashreq subregion, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanonand the Syrian Arab Republic, entered the 2025 summerseason under conditions of intensifying water stress withlower-than-normal precipitation. A complex interplay ofclimatic shifts, weak water governance, transboundary and worsening persistent issues like groundwaterdepletion, inadequate wastewater reuse, pollution and This policy brief calls for an integrated and cooperativeapproach to drought management, moving beyondcurrent fragmented adaptation responses. Itadvocates for regional planning, early warningsystems, climate-resilient agriculture, water-efficienttechnologies and stronger institutions. The 2025 dry The present policy brief addresses multiple droughtdimensions that are manifesting concurrently in the All four countries received under half their average rainfallin 2024/2025, sharply depleting strategic water reserves 1.Mashreq faces a deepening water deficit Cumulative rainfall during the 2024/2025 winter seasonwas well below long-term averages across all fourMashreq countries, with many locations recording totals rivers. The resulting pressure on the country’s fragilewater balance threatens irrigation supplies, drinkingwater availability and the long-term viability of southern InJordan,rainfall was critically low at 113mm – just46percentof the seasonal average of 244mm.3Asone of the world’s most water-scarce countries, Jordanis especially vulnerable to such deficits, which are Iraqcontinues to face serious hydrological stress, with2024/2025 national rainfall averaging approximately70mm – a sharp 49percent decrease from 2023/2024.2 This follows consecutive dry years and is compounded by Map 1.Al MosulLake, Iraq: water storage area declined more than half Source:Copernicus Sentinel-2 images. of groundwater recharge, was also impacted. Map 3illustrates this crisis, showing that snow coverage in thesame month was reduced by over half from 2024 to 2025, This shortfall is intensifying pressure on already stressedsupply systems, requiring emergency adjustments Lebanonfaced one of its worst recorded precipitationdeficits in 2024/2025. The Litani River Authority reportedunprecedented nationwide scarcity, with inflows to LakeQaraoun, the country’s largest reservoir, plummeting tojust 45million cubic metres, far below the 350millioncubic metre seasonal average.4This extreme dry spell The Syrian Arab Republic received only 240mm of rainfallby mid-May 2024/2025, just 46percentof its annualaverage.5This severe deficit intensified drought conditionsin critical basins including the Barada, Awaj and Orontes.The resulting water shortage strained agricultural and Source:Copernicus Sentinel-2 images. Source:Copernicus Sentinel-2 images. Source:Compiled by ESCWA fromGRACE mission data. Drought is expected to significantly raise the cost ofgroundwater extraction, as farmers are forced to pumpfrom greater depths due to insufficient rainfall. Forinstance, prior estimates for the Syrian Arab Republicindicate that a 10-metre increase in pumping depth can The NASA GRACE satellite missions show a consistentand prolonged decline in groundwater storage acrossthe subregion from 2003 to 2025. Notably, betweenMarch2024 and March2025, reserves fell sharply by14percent in Iraq, 8percent in Lebanon, 5percent in the 2.Climate change signal: SPEI-based evidence of rising Climate change is projected to intensify drought risks acrossthe Mashreq, with profound implications for water resources,agriculture and socioeconomic stability. Key drivers includerising temperatures, which are projected to increase by 1.8to 2.6°C by mid-century (2041–2060) under a high-emissionscenario (SSP5-8.5),7and erratic precipitation. These being especially affected (map 4). This amplification infrequency, duration and severity will strain agriculturaland ecological systems, reducing crop yields, increasing Projected increases in d