外贸中断与美国银行的回报

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print) Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, Carlos A. Ram´ırez, and Thiago R.T. Ferreira 2026-013 Please cite this paper as:Modugno, Michele, Dino Palazzo, Carlos A. Ram´ırez, and Thiago R.T. Ferreira (2026).“Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns,” Finance and Economics Discus-sion Series 2026-013.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.013. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, Carlos A. Ramírez, and Thiago R.T. Ferreira Abstract:We develop a market-based measure of firms’ and industries’ exposure to foreigntrade disruptions. Combining this approach with detailed supervisory data, we quantify largeU.S. banks’ exposure to such disruptions and propose a novel bank-level vulnerability index.We show that banks with greater exposure experienced significantly larger stock price declinesfollowing the April 2025 tariff announcements. Our vulnerability index explains 18% of the Introduction The growing frequency and severity of geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns about theeconomic consequences of disruptions to foreign trade. Yet, quantifying these effects is challenging,as it requires identifying which firms and industries are most exposed to trade policy changes. This task is complicated by the interconnected nature of modern economies and the limited availability ofdetailed supply-chain information.2In addition, restrictive trade policies can trigger broad recessionaryforces, leading to declines in investment and aggregate real income, reductions in wages in tradable sectors, and contractions in hours worked, consumption, and output (Caldara et al., 2020; Fajgelbaum To address these challenges and capture the full spectrum of firms affected by trade policies, we relyona market-based methodology to identify the most vulnerable firms and industries.Ouridentification strategy focuses on trading days dominated by unexpected trade policy changes, duringwhich cross-sectional differences in stock returns reveal differential exposure to foreign trade risk.Thisapproach leverages financial markets’ability to aggregate otherwise difficult-to-observeinformation, including supply-chain linkages, cost structures, and foreign market dependence. By We validate our identification strategy by analyzing the April 2025 tariff announcements, whichtriggered the largest increase in the average U.S. tariff rate in the post-WWII period (Barnichon andSingh(2026)).We examine the relationship between our trade exposure measure and firmcharacteristics capturing reliance on foreign markets and financial fragility. Consistent with ourinterpretation, firms experiencing the largest stock price declines exhibit greater dependence on Turning to the banking system, we show that while large U.S. banks have limited direct lending to themost trade-vulnerable firms, there is substantial heterogeneity in their exposure to trade-sensitiveindustries. Banks with greater exposure—measured by the share of lending to trade-sensitiveindustries—experienced significantly larger stock price declines following the April 2025 tariffannouncements. This evidence points to an important transmission channel: trade disruptions canpropagate to banks through their loan portfolios, even without substantial direct lending to the most Our paper contributes to the growing literature on the interaction between trade policy, supply-chainrisk, and financial stability. Recent work examines how trade policy shocks affect firm performance(Ignatenko et al., 2025) and how global supply chains shape firms’ financing needs (Alfaro et al., 2025).Greenland et al. (2024) show that equity market reactions provide a comprehensive measure of firmexposure to trade policy changes, capturing both direct and indirect channels without requiringdetailed supply-chain data. While their focus is on firm-level responses to trade liberalization, weextend this market-based approach to quantify banks’ indirect exposure through their loan portfolios.Other studies show that trade policy uncertainty (Correa et al., 2024) and supply chain risk (Morganet al., 2026) affect bank lending, while broader economic uncertainty also shapes credit supply Identification Strategy Our methodology focuses on trading days when U.S. stock prices are primarily driven by unexpectedtrade policy announcements. We exploit cross-sectional variation in stock returns during theseepisodes to infer firms’ exposure to trade disruptions. This strategy rests on the premise that financial Buildin