2026年并购趋势调查：两个市场的故事

Contents Executive summary.......................................................................................................3Part 1: Opportunities for value realization in 2026Five key findings on the 2026 M&A market......................................................................6Finding 1:Optimism remains high .............................................................................7 Conclusion......................................... 21Next steps for this research......... 21 Part 2: Three notable findings from the M&A Trends Survey Finding 1:New pivots in deal financing...................................................................18Finding 2:Digital transformation increasingly focused on AI ..............................19 Executive summary A year ago, we titled our 11th annual M&A Trends report “A time to pivot.”1For this 12th edition, we have chosen the title, “A tale oftwo markets.” Activity in the first half of 2025 differed sharply from activity in the second half, and there is a growing distinction As always, Deloitte continues to analyze and report on the M&A market in theyear just concluding (2025) while adding new perspectives and prescriptionsfor the coming year (2026). The findings and insights are largely based on our The ongoing volatility during 2025 illustrates that the need to “pivot,” which weidentified a year ago, remains a priority for corporate and PE dealmakers as anew year gets underway. In fact, during April 2025, volatility (as expressed in theVIX, also known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) “fear index”) Taken together, our survey data, M&A activity trends, and overall market conditions combine toindicate dealmakers may see interesting new opportunities. Notably, there are “two markets”emerging. For the purposes of this report, we’re defining and labeling these markets as “very In addition, reduced expectations for the increase in activity relative to 2025 appear to betempering respondents’ optimism for 2026 dealmaking. That isn’t surprising given the mixedmacroeconomic signals emanating from the market and economy. As a result, carefully Exploiting these dual markets, while maintaining the organizational agility to navigate variousheadwinds and tailwinds, is the focus for our new research. Accordingly, we’ve divided this report •InPart 1, we explore five findings that evidence the dual-market opportunity while explaining the headwinds, tailwinds, and an important “middle ground” market aspect resident in allthree data sets examined (actual M&A market, macroeconomic, and our survey data) before •InPart 2, we share additional survey data focused on three areas of particular interest forthe new year: shifts in alternative deal financing trends, increased and AI-driven digitaltransformation for M&A, and a new cross-border transaction trend. PA R T 1 Five key findings contribute to our perspectiveon the 2026 M&A market F I N D I N G1 F I N D I N G3 Mixed macroeconomic signals suggestdealmakers should exercise vigilance Expectations are more tempered Optimism remains high for the 2026M&A market among corporate and F I N D I N G5 F I N D I N G4 Agility and pivoting gained momentumin 2025 and is the recommended The emergence of two M&A marketsmay offer opportunities in the smaller Optimism remains high for the 2026 M&A marketamong corporate and PE dealmakers •Our survey indicates high optimism among PE and corporate dealmakers, for both buyers and sellers, in the year ahead. •More than 80% of both constituencies expressed optimism that their organizations would transact a greater volume of deals, with greater aggregate deal value, Expectations are more tempered for the coming year A significant year-to-year shift in the survey data may offer a deeper glimpse into business leaders’ sentiments about the current M&A market environment: •When asked to choose among five options for expected deal volume next year, the response “increase somewhat” jumped 17 points from last year, while the answer •This shows that even amid general optimism, expectations are tempered for thedegreeof increase in deal activity for the 12 months ahead. •M&A professionals know deal activity is highly correlated with the US and global economies. In a typicalperiod, it’s possible to discern a direction toward either bullish or bearish activity. However, that wasn’t Figure 5. A second-half value rebound in 2025 2025 M&A aggregate value, quarterly ($US) •To make sense of this macroeconomic context, we consider tailwinds, headwinds, and regulation—an important middle ground. These forces call for vigilance and agility by and for dealmakers. Tailwinds •Corporate earnings and equity markets both recovered strongly in the second half of 2025. Following afirst-quarter US GDP decline of 0.6%, US GDP rose by 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, followed bya 4.3% jump in the third quarter.2The US S&P 500 equity index rose 15.8% in 2025,3while the Nasdaq •A