为什么巴西经济仍未起飞

FOCUS Why doesn't Brazil take offon a long-haul flight? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Fifteen years ago, Brazil seemed to have everything it needed to grow its economy. The supply of abundant natural resources inagriculture, energy and minerals, among others, at a time of strong growth in China met the huge demand for Brazilian commodities.Robust sales to the Asian giant also helped lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty. In 2001, the acronym “BRIC” – consisting of Brazil,Russia, India and China – was coined in response to the four countries’ similar socioeconomic features and potential for investment andgrowth in future years. The four countries later took part in the inaugural BRIC summit in 2009. Several more countries have since joinedthe organisation. Fifteen years later, it does not make any doubts that Brazil has underperformed. For example, average growth barely reached 1% over theperiod between 2013 and 2024. While GDP has picked up in recent years – the average for 2022-2024 was 3.2% – it is likely to lose steamagain in 2025 when GDP is expected to grow by 2%. Brazil appears to be suffering from deindustrialisation even before having completeda complete industrial phase. The rising share of commodities in the country's exports is sending a clear message in this regard. The purpose of this publication is to understand the reasons for the failure of Brazil’s economic promise. Should the country’s difficultiesbe interpreted as a paradoxical effect of the abundant natural resources in the Brazilian subsoil? Following the example of what is knownas the “Dutch disease”, is this a case of “Brazilian disease” where the export of commodities is offset by weak performances in othersectors of the economy? Are the poor performances of Brazil's neighbours and the continent’s political environment also to blame?Might the explanation not also be found in Brazil's social and political structures? In order to answer these questions, we compared the country’s trends for the 2013-2024 period with those of asample of countries that had comparable GDP per capita in 2013, namely two countries which have prosperedsignificantly since then (Bulgaria and Serbia), two countries which have prospered moderately (Costa Rica andThailand) and one country, Mexico, whose ten-year growth is almost as sluggish as Brazil's. Five explanationsfor Brazil’s trajectory emerged from the comparisons:1) the high interest rate environment which discourages investment;l l l 2) the limited number of trade agreements and the existing Mercosur agreement, of which most members have reported lacklustre growth;3) the high corporate tax burden;4) underperformance by the education system;5) major political fragmentation that makes it difficult to agree on structural reforms. While there are still hurdles to overcome, some generally positive developments and opportunities haverecently emerged for the Brazilian economy. Recent approval of a tax reform to consolidate five existingtaxes into a single consumption levy, with separate federal and regional rates, constitutes a step in the rightdirection to ensure robust long-term growth. In addition, a potential agreement with the EU could also bringgreater export opportunities for South American countries in sectors such as agribusiness – especially for meat,livestock, fruit and vegetable produces – and the footwear industry. Brazil also has the potential to become aglobal leader in renewable energy, bioenergy and carbon markets. SOME OFTHE THINGSYOU’LLLEARN… bank’s successive hikes since September 2024 of theBrazilian Selic interest rate by a sharp 375 basis points to14.25%, in a bid to curb rising inflation and its unanchoredinflation expectations3. Inflation is expected to end 2025at 5.7% – above the central bank’s 3% target – with a 1.5percentage-point tolerance range. Breaking down the poorperformance of Brazil’s economy Brazil is renowned for its vast natural resources thatcomprise energy (oil), agriculture (soybean, sugar, coffee,corn, among others) and mineral deposits (including ironore), to name just a few. During the first decade of the21stcentury, Brazil´s economy was considered a primecandidate for a take-off. It was reaping the benefit ofnew deep-sea oilfields discovered in 2006 (the so-calledPre-salt fields) and of robust growth in China throughoutthe same period, which implied high demand for Brazil’scommodities. In the years between 2000 and 2012, theeconomy grew by an average of 3.6% per year. However,the country subsequently posted a lacklustre economicperformance from 2013 to 2024, registering an averageannual growth rate of a meager 1.0%. The average wasfurther eroded during the 2015-2016 period when Brazilexperienced its worst-ever recession, accumulating a 6.7%contraction in GDP. In addition, the economy slumped by3.3% in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020,although it recovered by 4.8% in 2021, clawing back a 1.3%increase for those two years, amid significant fiscal s