美中贸易战已进入未知领域

The US-China trade war has entered uncharted waters Paris,April18th, 2025:The escalating trade war between the United States and Chinahas reached a critical point, threatening to severely disrupt global trade. Reciprocaltariffs of over 100% are making trade between the two economic giants prohibitively An unprecedented trade war The trade war between the United States and China has reached unprecedented levels.After President Donald Trump announced widespread tariffs on 2 April, China retaliatedwith similar measures. Within a week, both countries had imposedadditional tariffs of 125% Tariffs at the heart of Donald Trump's policy DonaldTrump has always maintained that the short-term cost of tariffs is very lowcompared to the long-term benefits. He sees them as a means of financing tax cuts,reducing the US trade deficit and attracting foreign capital to relocate manufacturingproduction. Breaking off trade relations with a surplus economy like China is entirelyconsistent with this logic. The risk of a collapse in trade between the US and the rest of the The United States faces the risk of recession Despite progress in decoupling, tradebetween the United States and Chinaremains a central pillar of the globaleconomy. A collapse in imports causedbytariffs would lead to a dramaticincrease in the prices of manufacturedgoodsor make certain imported US exports of intermediategoodsto China by sector, % of total intermediate good exports Worst-case scenario: crisis of confidence, capital flight and collapse of the US dollar A more serious scenario would be a loss of confidence in US governance, which couldtrigger a sustained capital flight and a balance of payments crisis. The latest indicatorspoint in this direction and make this scenario increasingly likely. Since 2 April, the US dollarhas fallen from 0.93 to0.88against the euro, and Treasury yields have jumped50 basis Domestic market support as China's response to tariffuncertainties ForChina,the tariff shock could bepartiallyoffset by domestic stimulusmeasures. Domestic sales still accountfor81%ofindustrialcompanies'turnover,while direct exports to theUnited States account for only2.7%. Thedomestic market thereforeremains a China exports of intermediate goods to theUSby sector, % of total intermediate good exports as businesses and consumers remain cautious about investing and borrowing, even atlower costs. For business partners, a necessary review of commercial policy The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China could force thepartnersof both economies to review their trade strategies and choose betweenprotecting their domestic industries or aligning themselves with US policy in order tobenefit from lower tariffs. The latter option would inevitably lead to a reduction in re-routing activities (via ASEAN, for example) aimed at circumventing tariffs. To counter this COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leadingplayer in trade credit risk management for more than 75 years, Coface helpscompanies grow and navigate in an uncertain and volatile environment.Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Risk