尽管价格低廉，镍仍有未来
Nickel has a future despite low prices Paris,28thNovember2025:Nickel prices (LME, refined grade 1) fell toUSD 14,280pertonon 21 November,down 9.5% year-on-year, reaching their lowest level sinceOctober 2020 and underperforming compared to other base metals such as copper ‘In the short term, prices are expected to remain close to their current lows, around$14,000/tonin the first quarter of 2026,’ says Simon Lacoume, sector economist. Persistent Supply Surplusdriven by Indonesia Thisdownward pressure ismainlydrivenbyaglobalsurplus,fueledbystrongoutput–mainly ferronickel(NPI)in Indonesia and nickel Indonesiais central to thisdynamic,accountingforover60%of global mining productionand42%ofrefiningin 2025. Sincethe banon unprocessed ore in2020,theIndonesian government major foreign investors to build local facilities. As a result, thecountryhas expandedits capacityfrom2 smelters in 2014 to over 30 in 2025, causing a surge in capacity Tocurb this overexpansion,the government implementeda regulation1 onNovember 10, restricting new smelter investments throughIndustrial BusinessPermits (IUI). The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources also plans to cut nickel China: mixed demand despite the boom in electric vehicles Stainlesssteel purchases–the main consumer of nickel–remain subdued,especially in Asian markets.In 2025,we expect aslowinggrowth ofstainless-steeldemand(+3-4%YoY),to65million tons,after +7% YoY in 2024.China’skey roleinglobalnickel refining2and consumption3adds to prices volatility. The countryaimsto cap itsmanufacturingcapacity4, meanwhilenickel’skey client-sector,starting Nevertheless,long-termenergy transition technologies, such as EV and grid &storage,should partially offset Chinese building & real estate issues.Nickel plays acritical role in EV batteriesmanufacturingby offering a cost-effective alternative tocobalt-based technologies. Nickel-rich battery chemistries help make EV moreaffordablewhile reducing weight and increasing driving range,thereby SERVICE DE PRESSE COFACEAdrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15 Malcolm Biiga : +33 6 47 09 92 66adrien.billet@coface.comLucie Bolelli : +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE Acteur de référence de la gestion du risque de crédit commercial au niveau mondial depuis plusde 75ans, Coface aide les entreprises à développer leurs activités et à naviguer dans un environnementincertain et volatil. Quels que soient leur taille, leur localisation ou leur secteur d’activité, Cofaceaccompagne 100 000 clients sur près de 200 marchés à travers une gamme complète de solutions :
