（第08-52周）：ORANGE持续推进；LBTYA动态调整；ZEG快速增长；TI保持稳定

23 February 2026DatePeriodical Emerging EuropeEurope TelecommunicationsWireless Services DB X-Connect (Wk 08-52): ORANGE rolls on; LBTYAspins on; ZEG zooms on; TI HOLDS on Robert Grindle, Ph.D.Research Analyst Over the last week (Thu to Thu) the telecoms sector outperformed the broadermarket, with the SXKP index up 1.9% while the STOXX index was up 1.1%. Thestrongest performers amongst the SXKP constituents were Nokia (+8.9%), Zegona(+7.8%), and Sunrise (+6.4%), while the weakest performers were Freenet (-7.5%),BT Group (-3.4%), and Telefonica (-3.0%). Over the week, the sector risk-free ratedecreased by -3bps to 4% (-12bps ytd). YTD the forex move had a positive impact Keval Khiroya, CFAResearch Analyst Roshan Ranjit, CFAResearch Analyst John Karidis Research Analyst We recently published our Telco Outlook report. Please contact the team to set up a Vijay SaravananResearch Associate Key telecom topics and events this week EUROPEAN TELCOS OUTLOOK 2026:No longer a busy tone (defensive re-ratingincomplete). European telcos kept pace with an up-market again in 2025 whilstintra-year remained defensive. Resilience to sell-offs whilst moving towards marketrepair, higher returns and value events bode well, even if rates are less supportive Ankit SharmaResearch Associate SUNRISE (Buy):Q4 25 saw revenues 1% ahead (fixed KPIs improving but onlyslowly) though EBITDAaL 0.8% below Cons, with FY26 Adj FCF guidance in line (alittle below DBe) with an assist from lower capex vs EBITDAaL (~1% below). FY25div in line (CHF 3.42) with FY26 guided +2% (CHF 3.49) equiv. to an untaxed 7.6%yield which is why we like the stock in the context of Swiss 10Ys <30bp. Buy if anyweakness on in line FCF guide (with lower capex). FY26 guidance in line with cons(below DBe): In 2026 Sunrise expects to achieve: broadly stable revenue growth(Cons: -0.2%, DBe: 0.9%), Adj. EBITDAaL of ~CHF 1bn, i.e., flat (Cons 1.01bn, DBe:CHF 1.04bn, Cons: 0.5%, DBe 2.7%), capital intensity of below 15% of revenues(Cons: 15.8%, DBe: 15.5%), and adj. FCF of CHF 380-400m (cons: CHF 393m, DBe: LIBERTY GLOBAL (Buy):We publish on LBTYA ahead of Q4 results (18 Feb) 23 February 2026Wireless Services updating our ests. post Q3 reporting and recent forex moves (weaker USD) and inparticular, lower expected net corporate costs (~$100m in FY26 vs ~$150m nowguided for FY25 and ‘<$200m’ guided this time last year) which combined sees ourconsolidated EBITDA +6% in FY26+ and our TP +$3 to $25. We note that 2025 waspoor for LBTYA shares (post a strong end to 2024 after the spin-out of Sunrise) andthat a dearth of corporate actions alongside tough competition in the UK, abusiness reset in NL and slow approval for fibre collaboration in BE all weighed TELEKOM AUSTRIA (Hold):Price Target raised 10%; still a Hold. Note published.1) Post 4Q FY25 results, we have adjusted our forecasts mainly because, relative towhat we expected before, Austria / International are performing worse / better; ICTservices will likely drive more of TKA's revenue growth for some time, and theseearn below-average EBITDA margin but are also relatively less capex consumptive.In addition, we extended our DCF valuation to FY35 and rolled it forward by a year.Because of all this, our Price Target rises 10%, from €10.4 to €11.4/ share. The latteris +14% vs. the stock's last closing price, so our rating remains Hold. 2) Austriaremains a very tough market for TKA due to intense competition, made worse by ZEGONA (Buy):We see continued upside at Zegona, and in Tuesday’s note we flag(1) the shares still offer a path to double-digit unlevered and EFCF yields (2028eEFCF yield 10.7%), driving cash returns prospects (2028e dividend yield 7.1%); (2)whilst the Spanish Telco market remains competitive, it is now close to two yearssince Zegona cut prices (some back book repricing would have happened), there isevidence of some price increases in the market and Zegona is now better placed topush FTTH post the FibreCos, with most of the subscriber loss having historicallybeen on cable and (3) our forecasts do not assume full credit for the company’s DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Buy):DT shares have enjoyed a recent bounce (+19% ytd)with a boost last week from TMUS guiding for organic EBITDA growth accelerationand recognition that Softbank selling of TMUS shares has almost finished (weestimate 6m residual ex 10m held for DT). This has lifted a weight off both TMUS andDT share prices with a $5bn TMUS buyback in Q1 ($10bn for FY26) in which DTconfirms it is not participating, a further support. DT is effectively deploying itsbalance sheet in cheaper TMUS shares alongside a third year of €2bn SBB at DT – 23 February 2026Wireless Services thecosts potential of AI.Whilst not as dynamically exposed as peers toconsolidation, balance sheet repair and EM growth, DT remains a core defensivetelco top pick. We keep our €42 TP (unch) based on $300 TP for TMUS (unch) and OTE GROUP (Buy):Thoughts pre 4Q FY25 results on 26-Feb. Note