推进可持续债务解决方案：经验教训与前进方向

Lessons learned and the way forward Advancing sustainable debt solutions Lessons learned and the way forward 1.Background and overview1 2.Achievements and lessons learned3A.Enhanced debt optimization decisions, powered by knowledge products and artificial intelligence tools4B.Stronger regional collaboration and peer learning through a regional platform11C.Strengthening national capacity, supported by tailored analysis and technical assistance123.Scaling impact and enhancing outcomes, enabled by targeted, results-driven partnerships and global advocacyefforts154.Challenges and limitations195.Way forward and future opportunities21 List of figuresFigure 1.Gross debt in the Arab regionFigure 2.Key project milestones 13 1. Background and overview Public debt across the Arab region has reached unprecedented levels, constraining fiscal space andsustainable development. Total public debt reached an estimated $1.6 trillion in 2024, up from $609billion in 2010, with debt exceeding 90 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in severalcountries.1Mounting debt burdens are limiting Governments’ ability to invest in essential servicesamid heightened uncertainty, systemic risks, geopolitical tensions and climate change impacts. The impact of COVID-19, combined with structural challenges leading to recurrent trade and fiscaldeficits alongside low economic growth averaging below 3 per cent since the mid-2000s, hassteadily increased borrowing needs across the region. These needs are compounded by globalinflation, tighter financial conditions, regional conflicts, higher interest rates globally, and newchallenges such as the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. External borrowinghas increasingly shifted towards private creditors, through bond issuance, commercial banks andother private creditors, raising borrowing costs as concessional finance declines, especially formiddle- and low-income economies. This trend heightens vulnerability to exchange-rate shocks andtrade imbalances. Debt service now consumes a significant share of revenue, crowding out investment in essentialservices and sustainable development. For middle-income countries, external debt service morethan doubled to around 15 per cent of revenues by 2023 and is set to remain elevated through 2027.Several market-access countries are refinancing 100 per cent of annual debt service in light ofgrowing fiscal fragility. There is an urgent need for sustainable debt management strategies. “Debt is an important financial tool that can drive development and enable Governments to protectand invest in their people.”2While debt financing is not the sole solution to improving fiscal spaceand financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains a key source of financing usedto achieve these goals for middle-income and low-income countries in the Arab region. However,without sound and strategic management, borrowing can outpace productive investment, erodingfiscal stability and heightening sovereign risk. Decisions by Arab countries regarding debt financing often involve complex considerations. Low-and middle-income countries frequently face debt negotiations without adequate tools to establishmedium-to-long-term strategies. Challenges may include lack of data on general governmentexternal debt; limitations in debt data reporting; and standard debt sustainability analysisrecommendations advocating for contractionary fiscal measures. These hinder the ability ofpolicymakers to devise debt financing strategies while also supporting economic growth. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) embarked on aproject to equip policymakers across the Arab region with the tools and knowledge needed todesign effective medium- to long-term debt financing strategies. The project’s activities align withglobal mandates promoting debt sustainability, transparency and responsible financing in pursuit ofthe SDGs. Through targeted technical assistance, capacity-building and tailored policy dialogue,ESCWA advanced international efforts to improve debt management and foster innovativefinancing mechanisms, contributing directly to commitments under the Pact for the Future, theSevilla Commitment, and broader United Nations guidance on sustainable finance.3 2. Achievements and lessons learned To achieve its objectives, the project adopted a multi-track approach designed to: (a) bridgeknowledge gaps and provide advanced tools and policy solutions to drive sustainable financingstrategies in Arab countries; (b) strengthen national capacities and promote regional collaborationand peer learning platforms; and (c) advocate for sustainable debt solutions and innovativefinancing instruments at international events and fora to mobilize decision makers. Each track buildson the initiative’s commitment to innovation, partnership and tangible impact. Together, these efforts strengthened the capacity of policymakers at the highest level to underst