市场更新/快速评论：最新观点与信号

微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404KUpdated Thoughts & Signals. FEB 26∙PAID MARKET UPDATE / QUICK COMMENTS: Good morning. Soon after the open today I commented on NDX failing at the50dma and possibly dropping to fill yesterday’s gap, saying“could it be that simple?” Well it happened minutes later as themarket plunged on some fresh Iran news. 微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404KNormally this kind of news wouldn’t make any difference in astrong market, but this isn’t a strong market. I don’t like the way the market is trading, plain and simple. Yesterday’s feeble rally was erased in just minutes today, andnew lows are expanding. Worse, now they’re selling the Semis, with SOX having itsbiggest decline of the year so far (down nearly 5%). AVGO, oneof our favorite names last year, is about to break downcompletely (don’t look at the chart). We continue to hold zeroexposure to the group since selling all remaining core holdings(seven names) two weeks ago. For those who may have missed earlier updates in chat today,we raised cash by 10% to a total of 20%. It’s not a major changebut an incremental one, and maybe a necessary one. Going tosit tight with this for now, not looking to make any moresignificant moves today. The fact is — we can see and feel the market getting weaker.Stocks we like to watch are breaking down, some are outrightplunging. Whether this is a leading indicator we’ll see. 微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404KRight now this tells me: don’t buy anything, wait for betterconditions, raise a bit more cash. Keep moving incrementally It doesn’t mean stocks will collapse, it just means the upsideisn’t there. So if you force trades here, the market will keep charging youtoll money. And I don’t like to pay that. Therefore, have to playtight and wait for the dust to clear. Volatility is clearly in flux here. If VIX keeps chopping about likethis, doing whatever it wants, eventually someone big gets hurt. Will be updating with quick comments / thoughts as conditionsdevelop, stay nimble out there... Thanks for reading. Onwards and upwards, -MC We publish 100+ reports a year for paid subscribers. Focus is on BIGtrends, actionable ideas, and execution. 微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404KThis Substack is reader-supported. To receive newposts and support my work, consider becoming a freeor paid subscriber. ✅ABOUT:macrocharts.com/about. ✅Follow on X:@MacroCharts. Copyright © 2026 Macro Charts Substack. All rights reserved. This proprietary publication is protected by U.S. and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. Nolicense is granted, except for the subscriber’s personal use. No part of this publication or its contents maybe copied, downloaded, transmitted, reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form orby any means, except with the prior written permission of Macro Charts Substack. Any further disclosure oruse, distribution, dissemination or copying of this publication, message or any attachment is strictlyprohibited. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K This publication contains statements and statistics that have been obtained from sources believed to bereliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. References to any specific securities orinvestment advice of any kind do not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. The past performance ofan investment or investment strategy cannot guarantee its future performance. It should not be assumedthat such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee futureperformance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the subscriber.Inclusion of information about portfolio changes and other information is not intended as any type ofrecommendation, nor solicitation.