平价电动汽车的未来：电池包成本突破

EVs: Breakthroughs in The shift from internal combustion engines to battery electric vehicles iscurrently challenged. Achieving cost parity through battery pack cost by Clemens Cepnik and Martin Linderwith Andreas Haunreiter and Luca Buscaglione Until recently,the shift from internal combustion engine (ICE vehicles to battery electricvehicles (BEVs was steadily gaining momentum, driven primarily by international targets for reducing CO2emissions. New vehicles sold have bold targets—49.5 grams of CO₂ per kilometer(km) by 2030 in the European Union,1for example—with related penalties for exceeding fleet Despite some slowdown caused by geopolitical trends and constantly changing climate targets,our forecasts show global BEV sales to increase by 18 percent per year by 2030 to meet currentregulatory targets. To achieve the projected global ramp-up of zero-emission vehicles, EVs willneed to penetrate mass markets before 2030. Although the total cost of ownership (TCO for The largest cost driver for BEVs is the battery pack, which typically accounts for 30 to 40percent of a vehicle’s total cost. Even though costs have fallen significantly in the past fewyears, large battery packs can cost as much as €15,000 for incumbent OEMs. Still, someChinese companies have found additional cost advantages of 25 to 40 percent compared with This article illustrates how Western OEMs can follow the cost curve of Chinese competitors, andit describes how even though costs for Chinese companies will likely remain lower, thecombination of an acceptable cost position and a focus on customer value could help protect EV battery packs: An overview When comparing vehicles with similar battery capacities, Chinese OEMs consistently achievecost advantages—even as high as 40 percent. They do so by focusing on lowering the numberof parts and making more cost-effective technology choices, selecting lower-cost cell These points in mind, some Chinese manufacturers have reached battery pack costs ofapproximately €64 per kilowatt-hour (kWh for LFP solutions and about €82 per kWh for lithiumnickel manganese cobalt (NMC) solutions, resulting in cost advantages of €2,000 to €4,000 formidsize vehicles made in China2—a key reason why incumbent OEMs have lost market shares of Overcoming challenges and achieving cost excellence The following critical challenges can be addressed to help companies succeed in thecompetitive BEV market: battery platform and architecture, battery component design choices, Exhibit1 Battery platform and architecture A number of OEMs have lowered costs by simplifying pack design, increasing the functionalintegration level, and reducing the number of variants across their vehicle portfolios. In a jointannouncement in 2019, two Chinese companies unveiled cell-to-pack (C2P) battery architectureconcepts, which avoid battery modules by integrating large cells directly into the battery pack. This in mind, incumbent OEMs can take the following actions to follow the success of market Design vehicles around the battery pack.Many Chinese OEMs prioritize simplicity and costcompetitiveness, while a number of legacy OEMs have adapted their BEV portfolios based on existing ICE vehicle architectures. The latter decision was made to maximize the number ofcomponents that could be used across architectures as well as to maintain a multipowertrainplatform of ICE, hybrid, and fully electric powertrains. However, this ultimately results in less-than-efficient designs. Although multipowertrain platforms will no doubt continue to exist in low- Weight differences between OEM’s body-plus-pack platforms of comparable performance (interms of stiffness and crash safety) can reach 5 to 10 percent. C2P architectures can reducetotal weight by 2 to 4 percent and more than €500 per vehicle by mitigating housing costs of A compounding factor for these inefficiencies is legacy OEMs’ wider range of electric powertrainoptions, compared with disruptors. Some incumbent OEMs offer models with as many as fivedifferent powertrains, whereas new entrants sometimes limit offerings to two or three. Tominimize investment costs, legacy OEMs are reverting to mixed ICE or BEV platforms for their Enable cost-efficient cell chemistries.Although most customers don’t select their BEV bybattery chemistry, chemistry choice does drive customer attributes, including up-front cost, Adopting LFP battery chemistry is another effective way to lower costs, with the added bonus ofsafety advantages over other lithium-ion chemistries. However, LFP sacrifices energy density,which can result in lower ranges if the vehicle is not designed to take full benefit of theadvantages of LFP. Chinese OEMs have embraced LFP across entry-level and midrangevehicles, often compensating with innovative fast-charging technologies (about ten to 15 In the years to come, multiple LFP vehicle variants are going to be launched by non-ChineseOEMs to address price-sensitive segments. The slower ad