尿素周报：价格窄幅波动

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1830元/吨（+16）；河南小颗粒市场价1850元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1860元/吨（-20）；江苏小颗粒市场价1870元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差30元/吨（-36）；河南尿素基差20元/吨（-16）；江苏尿素基差40元/吨（-26）；尿素生产利润295.0元/吨（-20.0）；出口利润1234.8元/吨（-2.5）。 供应端：截至2026-03-08，企业产能利用率93.31%（+0.15%）；企业厂内库存为109.8万吨（-7.8）；港口库存为19.0万吨（+1.6）。 需求端：截至2026-03-08，复合肥产能利用率37.02%（+3.61%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.45%（-6.5%）；尿素企业预收订单天数7.71日（+0.6）。 市场分析 3月指导价较2月上调30元/吨，现货3月报价跟涨30元/吨，达到指导价。新单成交放缓，部分报价小幅松动。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡储3月开始投放。需求端春节后返青肥陆续开启，节后复合肥开工回升，临近终端用肥，市场情绪好转，走货放量。三聚氰胺装置部分临时停车，开工下降，刚需采购。节后下游复工，物流恢复，但受北方雨雪天气影响，局部仍受限，本周厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅累库。伊朗局势使得国际尿素价格大幅上涨，但当前国内出口配额暂无新消息，后续持续关注出口动态、淡储投放节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略 单边：震荡跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险 装置检修动态、淡储投放节奏、出口政策变动 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB....................................................................................................................................