中国全国人大：财政一揽子计划凸显对提振投资的更高重视

Economics - Asia ex-Japan China’s NPC: Fiscal package highlights a greaterfocus on boosting investment Research Analysts Asia Economics Ting Lu - NIHKting.lu@nomura.com+852 2252 1306 This morning, Premier Li Qiang delivered the 2026 government work report at the NationalPeople’s Congress (NPC). It was largely in line with ourpredictions, and we see no majorsurprises for key policy targets and budget numbers. As expected, the GDP growth targetwas lowered to a range of “4.5-5.0%” from “around 5.0%”, which has been the target overthe past three years, and the official fiscal deficit target was left unchanged at 4.0% ofGDP (raised in 2025 from a long tradition of 3.0%). The net financing quotas for off-budgetcentral government special bonds (CGSB) and local government special bonds (LGSB)were below market expectations, as they were left unchanged from last year at RMB1.3trnand RMB4.4trn, respectively. However, Beijing approved a new RMB800bn in “newfinancing policy tools”, which is essentially lending by policy banks to boost investment,following the RMB500bn earmarked inSeptemberlast year. On other major spendingareas, fiscal funding for the consumer trade-in program was reduced to RMB250bn fromRMB300bn last year, in line withour forecasts, while a new RMB100bn was planned tosupportinterest rate subsidy programs. Jing Wang - NIHKjing.wang@nomura.com+852 2252 1011 Harrington Zhang - NIHKharrington.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2057 Hannah Liu - NIHKhannah.liu@nomura.com+852 2252 1082 A review of policy targets for 2026: GDP growth target: “4.5-5.0%” from “around 5%” in 2025•Inflation target: “around 2%”, same as 2025•Fiscal deficit ratio: “around 4%” of GDP, same as 2025•Ultra-long central government special bond (CGSB) quota: RMB1.3trn, same as 2025Consumer trade-in: RMB250bn, slightly below the RMB300bn in 2025○Equipment upgrade: RMB200bn, same as RMB200bn in 2025○Implement major national strategies and build up security capacity in key areas:RMB800bn, same as 2025○•Central government general bond (CGGB) quota: RMB5.09trn versus RMB4.86trn in 2025•Local government general bond (LGGB) quota: RMB0.80trn, same as 2025•Local government special bond (LGSB) quota: RMB4.4trn, same as 2025•State bank recapitalization: RMB300bn in CGSB (not included in the RMB1.3trnabove), below the RMB500bn in 2025•New financing policy tools to boost investment: RMB800bn, versus RMB500bnannounced by the NDRC inlate September• A reasonable adjustment to the GDP growth target In ourpreviewof the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in early December, weexplicitly stressed that “Beijing may slightly lower its growth target to a range of ‘4.5-5.0%’for 2026 from ‘around 5.0%’ for 2025”. Over the past two months, with the release oflocalGDP growth targets, market consensus has already gradually moved lower to ourprediction of “4.5-5.0%”, which has now proven to be the case. Given the downwardpressure imposed by theproperty sector, thepayback effectof the “trade-in program”,and falling potential growth, we believe this is a reasonable adjustment. Still, we seesubstantial headwinds in H1 2026 and believe even a lower target of “4.5% to 5.0%” couldprove quite challenging to achieve. We maintain our annual growth forecast of 4.3%, andbelieve Beijing may be prompted to step up policy support after Q1. Incremental funds for investment mainly come from the new financing tool Beijing indicated it will increase the central government in-budget fund quota forinvestment to RMB755bn in 2026 from RMB735bn in 2025 (2024: RMB700bn), a steadyincrease, as expected. The quota assigned from the CGSB issuance for the "two majors" Production Complete: 2026-03-05 08:06 UTC projects will remain at RMB800bn in 2026, unchanged from 2025. The State Council willarrange RMB200bn – funded by CGSBs – for the large-scale equipment upgradeprogramme in 2026, also unchanged from 2025. Beijing will separately allocate andincrease the LGSB quota used for project construction, continuing to favour localities withwell-prepared investment projects and effective use of funds. In addition, a new quota ofRMB800bn will be allocated to the new policy-based financing tools, up from theRMB500bn quota granted in 2025 (see below section for details). On the management of investment funds, Beijing pledges to support local governments witha sound working foundation to explore the compilation of comprehensive governmentinvestment plans (part of the objectives laid out in the 15th Five-Year Plan), strengthenoversight of project funding, and resolutely prevent inefficient and ineffective investment. TheGWR stated that Beijing will implement policy measures to promote private investment,improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major projectconstruction, guide private investment to expand into new sectors such as high technologyand modern services, and effectively stimulate the vitality of private investment. RMB800bn new quota for the new poli