公用事业的黄金时代

MIKE GRANOWSKIPartner For decades, the utilities sector in the United States was thequiet backbone of the economy — reliable, regulated, andgradualist. Today, it stands at the dawn of significant MARK UFFHAUSENPartner PEDRO CARUSOPartner ERIN SOWERBYPartner JASON SMULLENSenior Project Manager Since Thomas Edison founded the Edison Electric Light Company in 1878, the electricutility industry has grown exponentially and evolved through investment, innovation,and regulation into the great engine that drove the Industrial Revolution in the U.S.and the world. Sometime in the late 20th century, despite population and economic In fact, electricity demand has already started growing a 2+% p.a. and is expected tocontinue doing so for years if not decades, a significant contrast from recent history.A large portion of the growth in demand will require high-reliability supply, a We stand on the precipice of a new industrial revolution, driven not by lighting,appliances or machines but rather information, computation, and artificial U.S. utilities will face several structural and cultural barriers that limit their ability tocapture the revenue, efficiency, and risk-management benefits of this new era. Regulatory Pressure The regulatory compact has shifted as affordability has come under scrutiny. Risingcosts from infrastructure upgrades, renewable integration, resource adequacy, riderprograms and emergency measures are passed directly to consumers. Rate increaseshave outpaced inflation, with 2025's capital requirements expected to exceed Aging infrastructure and resilience requirements Local grids have suffered from years of deferred investment, maintenanceinefficiencies, weak data systems, and growing exposure to cyberattacks andextreme weather. Outage frequency and repair costs are rising, while modernizationefforts are slowed by permitting delays, high capital requirements, and uneven Volatile federal and local regulatory policy complicates investment, technologychoice, and execution. Utilities long accustomed to policy stability and five-yearplanning horizons now face a paradox: states demand 20-year planning, whilefederal actions create turbulence in technology and resource selection. The Inflation One of the toughest barriers is internal. Cultural stagnation — resistiveness,gradualism, and myopia — undermines utilities' ability to capture revenue potential,unlock efficiencies, and manage risk in a growth environment. The "can-do" musclememory of major build-out in the 1970s and 80s has faded. There are many Utilities are being asked to deliver scale not seen since the 1970s, driven by loadgrowth from data centers, reshoring, and electrification. From 2000–2020, U.S.electricity demand was effectively flat, growing at less than 0.5% annually on average.The US will likely experience 2–3 % annual growth in demand through 2030, withcertain regions experiencing even faster expansion. After renewables deployment Workforce shortages and skills gaps6 Tacit knowledge in the utility workforce is at risk of being lost due to demographicaging. Roughly 25 % of employees are nearing retirement, especially in operationsand maintenance. Training gaps and talent competition will continue to raise laborand knowledge-retention costs, threatening operating continuity. The potential Key success factors on the road ahead We hypothesize that the utility industry can enter another Golden Age, achievingsignificant growth through innovation, investment, and renewed dedication to itscore purpose: safety, reliability, affordability, and universal service. The winners will Holistic cost and performance management To deliver affordability while investing in future-resilient assets, utilities must movebeyond siloed, obvious cost measures. A lean, efficient organization addressesaffordability in the short term and enables doing more with less over time. Instead ofrelying on headcount cuts, discretionary freezes, or blunt deferrals, utilities will need Resilience is now a strategic imperative and enterprise-level for utilities and localcommunities, which means shifting the paradigm of what utilities optimize as an end "The winners inthis new era will bethe utilities thatevolve from rigidoperators intoresilient, adaptivesystem stewards.This isn't Proactive stakeholder management Without a sound regulatory compact (reasonable ROE) and opportunities to retainor selectively grow allowed returns, potential gains from efficiency and growth willfade. Prior state and local approaches are insufficient for today's speed and scale.Policymakers, regulators, and utilities must rely on one another within institutions not The traditional five to ten-year frozen capex plans are obsolete for the new era.Successful utilities will need to adapt their capital planning and project execution to Segmented supply chain and procurement New, large capital projects at breakneck speed will combine with affordabilitypressures to create cost pressu