加拿大生物燃料年度报告

Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Report Name:Biofuels Annual Country:Canada Post:OttawaReport Category:Biofuels Prepared By:Erin Danielson Approved By:Daniel Archibald Report Highlights: This report was re-issued in February 2025 to capture revisions to 2024 U.S. renewable diesel importdata derived from theU.S. Energy Information Agency. Rising ethanol use and blending continued in2025, supported by the carbon credit exchange and provincial policies. The same was true for renewablediesel and biodiesel in 2024 and expected in 2025. Fuel ethanol consumptionin 2025 is forecast to be 52percent higher than 2021 levels (pre-CFR); biodiesel and renewable diesel are forecast to be 20 percentand 275 percent higher, respectively. Canada’s third, and largest, renewable diesel plant began operation THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY Acronyms Used in this reportBC-LCFS-British ColumbiaLow Carbon Fuel StandardBTC-Blenders Tax CreditBBD-Bio-based dieselsCFR-Clean Fuel RegulationsCI-Carbon intensityCO2-Carbon dioxideECCC-Environment and Climate Change Canada EPA-U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFCC-Fluidized catalytic crackingHDRD-Hydrogenation-Derived Renewable DieselIRA–Inflation Reduction ActLUB–Land use and biodiversityLCA–Life cycle assessmentLCFS–Low Carbon Fuel StandardML–Million liters CANADA BIOFUELS ANNUAL SECTION I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After years oflittle change,ethanoland renewable diesel (Hydrogenation-Derived Renewable Diesel/HDRD-type) useis up sharply.Year-over-year, an increasing proportion of energy demand is met byfuels with lower carbon intensities than the fossil fuels they replace, in large part because of Canada’sClean Fuel Regulations (CFR), which became law on July 6, 2022. Carbon-intensity (CI) reductionrequirements in fossil fuels came into effect on July 1, 2023, but an early credit creation mechanism that FAS/Ottawa estimates a52percent increase in fuel ethanol consumption in2025over 2021 (pre-CFR)levels, driven by the CFR, a regulation that boosts ethanol consumption across the country byincentivizing the use of low-CI fuels like ethanol by providing credits to the suppliers who blend it intogasoline, thereby increasing demand for ethanol to meet requirements. Increased consumption is also In 2024, fuel ethanol imports grew 2.3 percent over theprevious year and are forecast to increaseanadditionalthree percent in 2025. Ethanol imports as percentage share of consumption averages45percent for the period 2016to 2022. In 2024, that share elevated to a record 59 percent. Canada is the In 2024,combined domesticbiodiesel and renewable diesel consumption grew by 10percent over thepreviousyearon CFR obligations for fuel suppliers and blend rate requirements in Ontario and Quebec.Canada’s biodiesel sector is extremely responsive to U.S. regulation withvirtually allimports arrivingfrom the United States. Notable influences on Canadian biodiesel investment and sales decisions are theU.S. BlendersTaxCredit (BTC), and U.S. RIN values (Canadian biodiesel generatesRINs because the As a share of the diesel pool, biodiesel consumption has stagnated through the years and decreased in2024 over the previous year. HDRD consumption as a share of the diesel pool sawanincrease in 2024and Post forecasts anadditionalincrease in 2025. Further, Canada has for a long time seen the highestuse of HDRD as a share of total bio-based diesel (BBD–biodiesel and renewable diesel), running anaverage 53percent for the period 2015 to 2022. HDRD’s share of BBD has since skyrocketed HDRD consumptionsurpassesbiodiesel because it does not require a separate supply chain (nor thecosts associated with it) andit has alowerCI scorethan biodiesel. HDRD is favored in urban areas as itis a cleaner fuel with less toxins than diesel and biodiesel. And, finally, HDRD performs like fossil Canada began producing renewable diesel for the first time withthefirst facility coming online inNovember 2023, and a second in February 2024. A third facility cameonline in July 2025. Totalcapacity grew fromnothingin 2022 to 2.4 billion liters in 2025. One of those facilities exportsall ofitsproduction to the United States. With this new domestic supply, Canada exported renewable diesel, for Exports of biodiesel ramped up in the final months of 2024 as industry took advantage of the U.S.blenders tax credit (BTC) which expired in December 2024.Subsequent to the expiration, there issignificant uncertainty in the fuel and feedstock markets. Changes in U.S. federal tax credits have had The U.S. Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit (45Z) does not apply to imported renewable fuel fromCanada, unlike the preceding U.S. BTC, which all Canadian biodiesel producersbenefitedfrom since itsimplementation in 2004. Canadian industry points to the expiry of the BTC and the establishmentof 45Z In response to 45Z, Canadian federal and provincial levels of government are exploring opti