加拿大生物燃料年度报告

Date:February 25, 2026 Report Name:Biofuels Annual Country:Canada Post:Ottawa Report Category:Biofuels Prepared By:Erin Danielson Approved By:Daniel Archibald Report Highlights: This report was re-issued in February 2025 to capture revisions to 2024 U.S. renewable diesel importdata derived from theU.S. Energy Information Agency. Rising ethanol use and blending continued in2025, supported by the carbon credit exchange and provincial policies. The same was true for renewablediesel and biodiesel in 2024 and expected in 2025. Fuel ethanol consumptionin 2025 is forecast to be 52percent higher than 2021 levels (pre-CFR); biodiesel and renewable diesel are forecast to be 20 percentand 275 percent higher, respectively. Canada’s third, and largest, renewable diesel plant began operationin July 2025, bringing capacity up from 994 ML in 2024 to 2,380 ML. Renewable diesel exports to theUnited States began in June 2024. There is significant uncertainty for Canada’s biofuel production andinternational trade given imminent changes in U.S. and Canadian federal biofuel policies, and due toprovincial domestic content requirements introduced in 2025. Acronyms Used in this reportBC-LCFS-British ColumbiaLow Carbon Fuel StandardBTC-Blenders Tax CreditBBD-Bio-based dieselsCFR-Clean Fuel RegulationsCI-Carbon intensityCO2-Carbon dioxideECCC-Environment and Climate Change CanadaEPA-U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFCC-Fluidized catalytic crackingHDRD-Hydrogenation-Derived Renewable DieselIRA–Inflation Reduction ActLUB–Land use and biodiversityLCA–Life cycle assessmentLCFS–Low Carbon Fuel StandardML–Million litersMT–Metric tonsMMT–Million metric tonsOBBBA-One Big Beautiful Bill ActRFS–RenewableFuel StandardRIN–Renewable identification numberRD-Renewable diesel CANADA BIOFUELS ANNUAL SECTION I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After years oflittle change,ethanoland renewable diesel (Hydrogenation-Derived Renewable Diesel/HDRD-type) useis up sharply.Year-over-year, an increasing proportion of energy demand is met byfuels with lower carbon intensities than the fossil fuels they replace, in large part because of Canada’sClean Fuel Regulations (CFR), which became law on July 6, 2022. Carbon-intensity (CI) reductionrequirements in fossil fuels came into effect on July 1, 2023, but an early credit creation mechanism thatoccurred between June 21, 2022, and June 30, 2023, incentivized growth in ethanol blend rates in 2022,and later blendrates for biomass-based diesel (BBD). FAS/Ottawa estimates a52percent increase in fuel ethanol consumption in2025over 2021 (pre-CFR)levels, driven by the CFR, a regulation that boosts ethanol consumption across the country byincentivizing the use of low-CI fuels like ethanol by providing credits to the suppliers who blend it intogasoline, thereby increasing demand for ethanol to meet requirements. Increased consumption is alsodriven bynewblend rate requirements in Ontario and Quebec (the most populated provinces in Canada),and British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which works similarly to the CFR byincentivizing the use of lower-CI fuels like ethanol to meet requirements. In 2024, fuel ethanol imports grew 2.3 percent over theprevious year and are forecast to increaseanadditionalthree percent in 2025. Ethanol imports as percentage share of consumption averages45percent for the period 2016to 2022. In 2024, that share elevated to a record 59 percent. Canada is thesecond largest ethanol importer in the world, andthe United States’ largest export market. In 2024,combined domesticbiodiesel and renewable diesel consumption grew by 10percent over thepreviousyearon CFR obligations for fuel suppliers and blend rate requirements in Ontario and Quebec.Canada’s biodiesel sector is extremely responsive to U.S. regulation withvirtually allimports arrivingfrom the United States. Notable influences on Canadian biodiesel investment and sales decisions are theU.S. BlendersTaxCredit (BTC), and U.S. RIN values (Canadian biodiesel generatesRINs because theU.S. EPA approved their production pathways to meet RFS renewable fuel obligations). As a share of the diesel pool, biodiesel consumption has stagnated through the years and decreased in2024 over the previous year. HDRD consumption as a share of the diesel pool sawanincrease in 2024and Post forecasts anadditionalincrease in 2025. Further, Canada has for a long time seen the highestuse of HDRD as a share of total bio-based diesel (BBD–biodiesel and renewable diesel), running anaverage 53percent for the period 2015 to 2022. HDRD’s share of BBD has since skyrocketedto72percent in 2023 and80percent in 2024. HDRD consumptionsurpassesbiodiesel because it does not require a separate supply chain (nor thecosts associated with it) andit has alowerCI scorethan biodiesel. HDRD is favored in urban areas as itis a cleaner fuel with less toxins than diesel and biodiesel. And, finally, HDRD performs like fossildiesel much better than biodiesel in Canada’s cold climate. Canad