Coinbase第四季度：无处可藏，但此时抛售过于‘便宜’

RatingOutperform Price Target COIN 440.00 USD COIN Q4: Nowhere to hide, but too 'cheap' to sell here COIN declared Q4 numbers. Q4 revenue missed estimates by 3%, with a 28% miss onadjusted EPS at $0.66. Full year adjusted EPS at $4.44 missed estimates by 4%, and adj.EBITDA at $2.8Bn missed by 2%. Unfortunately, with COIN fully exposed to crypto markets,there is nowhere to hide. It’s trading business volumes oscillate with crypto market sentimentand will be a while before new products (equities, prediction markets) diversify tradingrevenues. With a strong Balance sheet ($5.4Bn net cash & digital assets), COIN trades at ~11times EV/2025 LTM, and we still see the market recovering from here into 2026 & 2027.Hence, we would wait out the crypto volatility and take the pain here, rather than panic closeto the market lows. We share our key takeaways. Close Date12 Feb 2026COIN Close Price (USD)141.09Price Target (USD)440.00Upside/(Downside)212%52-Week Range444.65/139.36SPX6,832.76FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)37,322EV (USD) (M)35,310 Trading metrics 1. Total trading volumeon Coinbase, including both spot and derivatives, increasedby >150% YoY in 2025 to $5.2Tn. Spot trading contributed $1.2Tn, with the remainderdriven by Deribit and Coinbase International Exchange. The blended take rate (retail andinstitutional) remained unchanged YoY at 32bps in 2025. 2. Consumer (retail) trading volumedeclined by 6% QoQ to $56Bn and represented~21% of total volumes in Q4. Retail yield decreased from 143bps in Q3FY25 to 131bps inQ4FY25, reflecting a higher mix of advanced trading and increased volume from CoinbaseOne subscribers. For FY25, consumer trading volume rose 7% YoY to $236Bn, while the takerate declined from 155bps in FY24 to 141bps in FY25. 3. Institutional spot volumedecreased by 9% QoQ; however, institutional revenue grew37% QoQ. As a result, the implied institutional yield increased from 5.7bps in Q3FY25 to8.6bps in Q4FY25. Institutional revenue outperformance relative to spot volume was drivenby the Deribit acquisition(mid‑August),which delivered another quarter of record revenuein Q4 (volumes up 4% QoQ), along with continued expansion of the derivatives business.Continued on page 2... Investment Implications We rate COIN Outperform (PT $440) See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. DETAILS For FY25, institutional trading volume increased 2% YoY to $960Bn, with the implied take rate rising from 4bps in FY24 to5bps in FY25, reflecting the contribution of derivatives revenue that is not included in institutional volume figures. As a result,institutional trading revenue grew 39% YoY in 2025, outpacing volume growth. Subscription and services 1. Assets on platformdeclined 27% QoQ (-7% YoY) to $376Bn, primarily due to lower average crypto prices. Coinbasecontinues to hold ~12% of total crypto market capitalization on its platform. 2. Stablecoin revenuereached $364Mn, up 3% QoQ, supported by higher Average USDC Held in Coinbase products, whichincreased 18% QoQ to $17.8Bn. This was partially offset by lower effective interest rates on reserves following rate cuts inQ4FY25. For FY25, stablecoin revenue rose 48% YoY to $1.3Bn, reflecting continued expansion of USDC integration acrossthe platform. 3. Other subscription and services revenueincreased in Q4FY25 (+6% QoQ), driven by Boosted Rewards and bundledaccess to the new Coinbase One Card, which supported adoption of Coinbase One—particularly the $4.99/month basic tier.As a result, paid Coinbase One subscribers increased from 0.7mn in 2024 to ~1mn in 2025. This was partially offset by lowercustodial fee revenue due to softer average crypto prices. 4. Staking revenuedeclined 18% QoQ, primarily due to lower ETH and SOL prices. Financials 1. For Q4FY25, COIN reported $1.8Bn in revenue (5% QoQ decline), with transaction revenues down 6% QoQ. Subscriptionand services revenue declined 3% QoQ, with stablecoin revenues up 3% QoQ and blockchain rewards (staking) down 18% QoQdue to lower ETH and SOL prices. Adjusted operating expenses (excluding gains/losses on crypto held for operations) rose 4%sequentially, driven by costs related to the Deribit and Echo acquisitions and higher USDC rewards. This resulted in a 29% QoQdecline in adjusted EBITDA to $566Mn. Net loss for the quarter was $667Mn, reflecting a $718Mn unrealized loss on the cryptoinvestment portfolio and a $395Mn loss on strategic investments, leading to an adjusted net income of $178Mn. 2. For 2025,COIN generated $7.2Bn in revenue (9% YoY increase), with transaction revenues representing ~56% of totalrevenue (vs. 61% in 2024). Subscription and services revenue grew 23% YoY to $2.8Bn, supported by growth in stablecoinrevenue (~50% of subscription and services). Coinbase now has 12 products with more than $100Mn in ARR, with primefinancing, retail deriv