您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银证券]:Global Storage Technology: Optimistic Investor Sentiment in Singapore, Comparison of DRAM Spot and NAND, SK Square and Wonik - 发现报告

Global Storage Technology: Optimistic Investor Sentiment in Singapore, Comparison of DRAM Spot and NAND, SK Square and Wonik

信息技术 2026-02-27 美银证券 坚守此念
报告封面

Weekly theme: Singapore investors, upbeatDRAM spot vs NAND, SK Square, WonikIndustry Overview Singapore investor meeting and virtual tour takeaways We met investors in Singapore to discuss memory and Korea tech this week.Someinvestors alluded to their short / underweighted position (NAND, backend equipment andhardware stocks) but our positive views on DRAM and Korea tech were well discussed during the meetings. Investor feedback on our valuation shift from P/B to P/E was alsobroadly good given high stock-upside potential even if 10-20x P/E is applied (vs 20-30xfor Taiwan foundry and US semis).See our recent report on rating/PO changes amongmemory and Korea tech stocks. We also learned more bullish guidance from our recentvirtual tech tour - stronger memory chip price for 1Q or even 2Q, acceleration of newshell fab construction (in Yongin/Pyeongtaek, Korea), more positive impact of NVIDIA’s new GPUs/CPUs (particularly HBM4, HBM4e and LPDDR5), and value-up program (dividend, buyback, ADR) vs 1-2 months ago expectations.Stronger-than-expected DRAM spot after LNY holidaysSome module makersexpected DRAM spot-price correction post Lunar New Year holiday DRAM and 1TB NAND well embedded for Ultra version with higher retail prices. Since our check still indicates rising chip order over the next few weeks, we believe DRAMspot price won’t fall back easily in March. That said, NAND spot price remained flat this week (vs Jan rally) as some OEMs expect Korea/Japan/China fab utilization ratio to rise.SK Square’s divided payment as Hynix beneficiaryWe reiterate our bullish view on SK Square as a beneficiary of Hynix, which is expected estimates are mostly unchanged after 2025 full-year results were released this week -broadly in line, particularly high payout ratio vs dividend income from Hynix (W200bn cash dividend from 2026 besides ongoing buyback using more than doubled dividendincome paid by Hynix in 2026-28 vs 2025. Wonik IPS’s CVD not highly profitable vs Hanmi’s TCB We reiterate our cautious stance on Wonik IPS - Korea’s largest CVD equipment supplierfor Samsung Electronics and Hynix. Three reasons: 1) low margin despite 30%+ top-linegrowth (2026E); 2) competition with US/Japan large equipment players; and 3) limitedstock upside after strong YTD rally. 4Q25 results revealed only 6% OPM with limited high to be positive. We note that Hanmi Semi’s TCB sales growth and margin outlookare more attractive vs Wonik’s CVD, given former’s market-dominant position. Korea exports, NVIDIA earnings and Samsung S26 specs Exhibit3:Accelerating YoYgrowthwell-observed in Feb (+134%) vs+26%/+42%/+70% in Nov/Dec/Jan, respectivelyKorea semis exports – YoY in first 20 days of month; already 28 consecutive Exhibit2:All-time high exports in Feb (US$15.1bn) with robust MoMgrowth (+41%)Korea semis exports–first 20 days of month (US$bn) months of positive growth BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit4: Record-high revenuecontinuedinJan-Q (total: US$68bn;+73% YoY / datacenter: US$62bn; +75% YoY); Apr-Q total sales guidance indicates +77% YoY growth (US$78bn)NVIDIA–Total revenue vs datacenter revenue trend Exhibit6:Samsung unveiled its new flagship smartphone Galaxy S26 series. Key changes are higher DRAM content for S26 Ultra (12/16GB vs. only 12GBfor S25 Ultra) and NAND content for S26 (256GB is the lowest vs. 128GB for S25), $100 price increase for Plus and regular models compared to thepredecessor with no change for Ultra model. No camera specs changes were found.Samsung’s Galaxy S26 vs S25 specs comparison Memory spot price trend Exhibit7: Price sharply up this weekatrecord high-level of $39;robust rally was observed in Oct (+70%) and Nov (+60%) and Jan(+25%) months as well16Gb DDR5 spot price–daily, May ’23-Feb ‘26 Exhibit8:MoM growth decelerated to +10% inFebfollowing Janrally (25%) vs +60-120% range during Oct-Nov16Gb DDR5 spot month-average price–MoM change,May ’23-Feb ‘26 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit10: Broadly stable this month but hadrecovered+30-70%each in Sep to Dec, as well as in Jan (+20%) to reach US$78; priceup 2400%+ YoY16Gb DDR4 spot price trend, Jan’23-Feb‘26 Exhibit9:8Gb DDR4also recovered well after flat 1H-Feb, overallrally more notable (2000%+ YoY) due to big-3 chipmakers’production cut; price hit $30 exceeding previous high levels of $10hit in Oct-178Gb DDR4 spot price trend,Mar‘23-Feb‘26 Exhibit12:Pricesmassivelyrecovered40-70% each inOct/Nov/Dec/Jan vs up 4% MoM each in Aug and September’; prices remained flat in May/June/July; up 20% in Feb512Gb NAND wafer spot month-average–MoM change,Jan’21-Feb‘26 Exhibit11: Strong rally of +50%/70%/40% observed inOct/Nov/Dec due to production cut and demand recovery driven price upside; Jan price also up +~25% and up +10% in Feb512Gb NAND wafer spot price–weekly,Oct’20-Feb‘26 Memory contract price monthly trend Exhibit14: DDR5 and DDR4 contract price stabilized (+5-15% MoM)in Dec after robust Nov rally (124%/22%); Jan momentum (~25-35%) strong vs Feb muted1