揭示2040年的道路：全球保险调查报告

Contents 5Executive summary 7Navigating opportunities and risks in a changing insurance landscape 11The promise of technology and barriers to change 13Affordability and trust: keys to unlocking growth and closing the 18Eyes on the horizon About the research To understand how leaders view the forcestransforming the insurance industry, EconomistImpact, sponsored by SAS, conducted aglobal survey of more than 500 insuranceexecutives in September and October 2024. Ruo (Alex) Jia, director of digitaltechnologies, The Geneva Association Anaar Kara, senior financial sectorspecialist, CGAP, The World Bank Marc Ragin, associate professorof risk management and insurance This report summarises key findings from thesurvey and complementsRevealing the pathsto 2040: four possible scenarios for insurance, •Hanne van Voorden, head of supervisorypractices and operations, International We would like to thank the following Economist Impact bears sole responsibilityfor the content of this report. The findingsand views expressed herein do notnecessarily reflect the views of our sponsor, •Andre Belelieu, head of financial servicesindustries, World Economic Forum •Quentin Gisserot, head of partnership, AXA •Maryam Golnaraghi, director ofclimate change and environment, About SAS SAS data and AI solutions provide our global customers with knowledge they can trust in themoments that matter, inspiring bold new innovations across industries. For more information, Executive summary Insurers have long been in the business ofhelping customers manage risks in an uncertainworld. But now leaders are grappling withuncertainties growing around the industryitself. How will more frequent extreme weatherevents impact risk models and pricing? How The answers will reshape insurance firms inthe coming years. To understand how leadersperceive their industry in a time of growingrisk—and opportunity—Economist Impact Key findings include: •Many insurance leaders view the two mostsignificant trends poised to shape thesector in the coming decade—changing New technologies are the key driver of change in the industry.But most (~75%) leaders are cognisant of myriad internalbarriers to adaptation and evolution,including legacy systems, departmental andfunctional silos, and a slow rate of innovation. market dynamics and the rise of AI (including generative AI)—as opportunitiesto be seized.AI’s benefits to insurers’ Insurers view closing the large globalprotection gap, the difference betweeninsured and uninsured losses, as both •Leaders view climate-related risksand extreme weather events, growinggeopolitical tensions, and increasingcybersecurity risks as the greatest risks to an ethical responsibility and a business opportunity.But three in four leaders alsosee two major barriers to this: diminished trustin the sector and a lack of affordability. In thisregard, survey respondents pointed towards their organisation over the next decade.Still, one in four (25%) respondents also seeclimate risks and geopolitical uncertainty as •Insurers view minimising underwritingand operating costs as key to staying ahead of and taking advantage of industry trends.Across all regions and industrysubsectors, leaders see cost minimisationas a top goal. This appears to reflect manyleaders’ awareness of and optimism toward Navigating opportunities and risksin a changing insurance landscape Many leaders view the major trendsimpacting the insurance industry with Recent years have presented insurers witha volatile operating environment. Highinflation has pushed the costs of claims1higher in some markets. Low growth inindustrialised economies—where the majorityof premiums are collected—2have createdheadwinds. Cybersecurity and fraud risks cautious optimism.Executives in all geographiesidentified changing market dynamics and therise and spread of AI as the two most significanttrends poised to shape the sector in the coming Figure 1. Insurance executives are optimistic about the major trends influencingtheir industry, but remain aware of critical risks influencing their organisation. The trends that survey respondents expect to most influence their industry during the next decade, and the perceivedopportunity and risk for their organisation. Bubble size represents how much a trend is perceived as influencing the industry. The rise and spread of AI was perceived as thesecond most significant opportunity. This findingsuggests that executives see valuable AI use casesin their businesses, such as using generative AIto improve risk assessment, personalise policy In fact, insurtech will play an important rolein supporting insurance companies with theirdigital transformation, especially in areas likefraud detection and claims processing.5A globalstudy published in 2023, which assesses the In third position, pressure to prioritiseenvironmental, social and governance (ESG)principles is also expected to influence theindustry. For instance, climate chang