交付的未来：塑造2026年的主要趋势

The future of delivery:Key trendsshaping 2026 Market evolution Intro Evolution of retail and customer demand ...................................... 51 Executive summary ........................................................................ 3 2026 Delivery trends ............................................................ 5 Conclusion ............................................................................ 56 Core infrastructure References ............................................................................ 58 AI & autonomous decision-making ................................................ 9Predictive analytics, control towers & end-to-end digital twins .... 13Platformization & API ecosystems .................................................. 18 Customer-facing Delivery choice & customer-centric fulfilment.............................. 24Last-mile innovation & urban logistics ........................................... 28 Resilience & sustainability Supply chain resilience & targeted nearshoring ............................ 32Electrification & green fleet transition ............................................ 36 Operational excellence Warehouse robotics & operational twins ........................................ 41Regulatory backbone & data ........................................................... 46 Executive summary By 2026, logistics across Europe is no longer treated as “back-end plumbing.” It has emerged as adecisive battleground, shaping who wins in e-commerce, retail, and B2B distribution. Across the region, five forces converge: 1.Customers expect choice, reliability, transparency, and greener options at checkout, and punishbrands that fail to deliver.2.Regulatory backbone & data. EU climate, transport, tariffs and digital regulations hard-wire low-carbon, data-rich operations into logistics.3.Resilience has overtaken unit cost as the new design principle for modern supply chains.4.Automation, AI, APIs, and platforms are shifting logistics from manual "firefighting" toorchestrated, data-driven networks.5.Carriers, shippers, platforms, and tech providers are locking into shared ecosystems rather thanisolated stacks. This report outlines ten interconnected trends shaping that landscape for 2026 and beyond, witha European lens. Together, they describe a future of delivery that is multi-carrier and option rich,where shoppers expect tailored delivery and returns, while networks flex across many services. The logistics system becomes data native, since AI, controltowers, digital twins, and emissions reporting all rely on clean,standardized, API-accessible data and consistent event streamsacross carriers and modes. Resilience and decarbonization move into network design, withdiversification, nearshoring, and zero-emission fleets treated ascompetitive choices rather than side projects. Bottom line This is not a distant forecast. Most of the shiftsin this report are already visible in Europeannetworks today. 2026 is when they start toshape who wins tenders, who wins shoppers,and who falls behind. Platformization sits at the intersection of these forces, providingthe connective tissue that allows European merchants, carriers,and customers to operate inside a regulated, experience-drivenlogistics reality. Delivery is no longeran afterthought In 2026, delivery is the place where a brand keeps its word and where logistics costs become real.Or In 2026, delivery is the brand’s proving ground and the sharp end of logistics costs. The ten trends below map how that moment is changing across Europe, from the systems underthe surface to the choices customers see on the screen. Core infrastructure: AI & autonomous decision-making:GenAI, machine learning, and AI agents continue transform demandforecasting, route optimization, and warehouse automation. 1. Predictive analytics, control towers & end-to-end digital twins:Unified visibility platforms and digital replicas enable proactive decision-making. 2. 3.Platformization & API ecosystems:Modular, API-first architectures replace monolithic systems, enablingcomposability and ecosystem integration. Customer-facing: 4.Delivery choice & customer-centric fulfilment:Shoppers demand control over speed, location, cost, and sustainabilityat checkout. 5.Last-mile innovation & urban logistics:Urban consolidation centres and microhubs, OOH networks, cargo bikes andautonomous robots continue to reshape city delivery. Resilience & sustainability: 6.Supply chain resilience & targeted nearshoring:Businesses rebalance global networks for speed, reliability, andrisk mitigation. 7.Electrification & green fleet transition:Zero-emission zones, subsidy programs, and infrastructure gaps continue todrive the electric vehicle shift. Operational excellence: 8.Warehouse robotics & operational twins:AMRs, AS/RS, and virtual warehouses are boosting throughput and productivity inadvanced operations, though many warehouses are still in early or